Grocery sales are expected to surpass €1.4 billion for the first time ever in December with a record-breaking Christmas period expected, according to latest figures from Kantar’s Worldpanel.
Due to “fierce competition” between retailers this year, the cost of a Christmas dinner for four increased by 3.2%, which is well below the overall average growth in price per pack at 5.4%.
Some festive items are even falling in price, with Brussels sprouts and Christmas pudding down 0.6% and 22% respectively compared to last year, Kantar figures show.
Saturday, December 23, is expected to be the busiest day in stores this year as €96 million in value sales rang through the tills on Friday, December 23, last year, Kantar said.
“We are on course for a record-breaking festive period, with shoppers spending an unprecedented amount at supermarkets this Christmas.
“It’s always a bumper time for Irish grocers with consumers buying on average 11% more items than in a typical month, business development director at Kantar’s Worldpanel, Emer Healy said.
Grocery trends ahead of Christmas
Grocery price inflation fell for the seventh month in a row and now sits at 8.6% in the 12 weeks to November 26, 2023. The rate of inflation, however, remains “incredibly high”, Healy said.
Compared to last month’s rate of 9.8%, inflation is now at the lowest level since August 2022, with the gradual decline in inflation expected to continue over the coming months, she added.
The percentage of packs sold on promotion now stands at 26.7%, which is up 1.9% on last month and up 15.3% on last year. Dunnes, SuperValu and Tesco are all seeing strong growth in sales on promotion.
Sales of own-label goods rose by 10.4% in the last 12 weeks. Premium own-label products rose by 10.6% with shoppers spending an additional €13.4 million on these items compared to last year.
The share of own-label value currently stands at 46.6% with brands holding 48.5% of the share. This is up 1.1% on last month as shoppers turn to trusted brands in the lead up to Christmas.
“Retailers are pushing own-label lines and promotions to get Irish shoppers through the door.
“However, it seems that consumers are also reaching for branded goods as they look to indulge over the festive season,” Healy said.
Shoppers spent an additional €92 million on branded goods, particularly on seasonal biscuits and take-home confectionary with sales up by 12.9% and 12.4% respectively.
Take-home grocery sales increased by 7.2% in the four weeks to November 26, 2023. Shoppers visited stores more often in November, making an average of 21.3 trips over the month.
Online sales remained strong over the past three months and increased by 25.7%, with shoppers spending an additional €37.3 million on the platform compared to last year.
Retailers
Dunnes, Tesco and Lidl all grew ahead of the total market in terms of value this month. Dunnes hit a new record share of 24.2% and growth of 11.7% year-on-year, Kantar said.
This growth was driven by a strong boost in new shoppers together with more volume per trip, which combined contributed an additional €31 million to Dunnes’ overall performance.
Tesco has 23% of the market and growth of 11.4% year-on-year. Continued strong frequency growth and new shoppers in-store contributed an additional €81.1 million.
SuperValu holds 20.6% of the market with growth of 6.2%. A continued high number of in-store trips by shoppers and higher volumes per trip contributed an additional €47 million.
Lidl holds 13.2% share and growth of 10.4% year-on-year. More frequent trips contributed an additional €39.3 million to the supermarket’s overall performance.
Aldi holds 11.7% with growth of 1.4% year-on-year. More frequent trips by shoppers contributed an additional €17.3 million to the overall performance, Kantar figures show.