It was widely reported that the European Parliament banned the sale of new petrol and diesel-powered cars from 2035 onwards, a development that will have a significant impact on rural Ireland where personal transport is essential.
However, the wording of the legislation does not define the banishment of the internal combustion engine (ICE) as such, only a target of a 100% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the levels of 2021.
Total carbon to be taken into account
It also goes on to declare that the “commission will present, by 2025, a methodology to assess and report data on CO2 emissions throughout the full life-cycle of cars and vans sold on the EU market, accompanied by legislative proposals where appropriate”.
These then are the two major items which were passed on February 14. The process being that it was the Council of the European Union which proposed the legislation which the parliament then voted on.
The vote was 340 for, and 279 against, with 21 absentees. A clear majority, yet it remains the case that the proposals did not go without opposition, although voice has only been given to those on the winning side, even within official EU statements.
In the European Parliament’s own press release it was only Jan Huitema, a member of the Dutch right wing VVD party, who was given space to put forward an optimistic vision of vehicle manufacturers falling over themselves to supply zero emission cars.
This an interesting position for a VVD member to take as the party is committed to free enterprise, and yet it supports legislation that aims to deny the choice to consumers of their preferred energy source, insisting that free enterprise only extends as far the VVD, and its allies in the Renew Europe grouping, wants it to.
Total carbon release
Politics aside, there is within the legislation, a conflict between its two major aims i.e., while it demands zero emissions from the car, the second clause demands that the whole-life emissions also be taken into account.
The argument as to whether an electric vehicle is responsible for less CO2 release in total than one running on an internal combustion engine (ICE) rumbles on, for an electric vehicle consumes far more energy in its construction than an ICE-powered one.
Jerod Cory Kelly, based in Chicago, home of the automobile, has developed a model known as GREET, which is designed to predict the impact of each, and he notes that the payback period for electric vehicles (EVs), depends on factors such as the size of its battery, the fuel economy of the ICE-powered car and how the power used to charge an EV is generated.
It is by no means clear cut that EVs do release less CO2 over their lifetime than ICE cars, and if carbon-based fuels produced via extracting CO2 from the atmosphere are added to the mix, then all bets are off.
European grid capacity
Another fly in the ointment of European EV adoption is the ability of the grid to either generate or distribute the required electricity. This is a further argument which rumbles on with no clear cut answers.
The question as to whether there be will be enough electricity in the EU to power all our cars beyond the 2030s remains subject to presumptions such as the use of smart meters. And even if there is, has the world enough lithium to meet the demand for batteries?
We might also note that 79% of battery manufacture is based in China, and while the VVD party might wish us to become independent of Russian gas, it is pushing us towards near total reliance on China, a country which doesn’t even pretend to be a democracy.
EV sales decline
The European Parliament has passed this legislation in the belief that drivers will happily switch to EVs just as sales suffered a 3% reduction in Germany, and Tesla is discounting its cars due to lack of demand in the US.
There is the potential for it to have a very negative impact on rural dwellers who are blessed with the simplicity of diesel or petrol, two chemicals which need not be extracted from the ground and therefore will not add to the total carbon release.
Whether there is wriggle room enough in the legislation to allow alternatives to the battery to prevail while still reducing our dependence on fossil fuels is unclear at present.
In addition to synthetic fuels there is hydrogen and liquid methane, both technologies which are in active development.
Yet the wording implies that the car must emit zero carbon, a most satisfactory result for those lobbying on behalf of Chinese industry.