The intensive farming model is broken and must be reassessed, according to John Sweeney, emeritus professor at Maynooth University.
Sweeney, who has published over 100 scientific papers on climate change, made the comments during his address to the BioFarm conference in Adare, Co. Limerick yesterday (Tuesday, November 7).
He told the conference that Ireland’s per capita emissions are around 3.7 times the European Union average.
“We stand out like a sore thumb by comparison to other countries and we’re not that much better when it comes to nitrous oxide emissions either. We’re about three times the EU average,” he said.
Sweeney believes the Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) will not solve the problems as it is “assuming continuation of business as usual”.
“Whatever the nice economists say about the relative low hanging fruit and high hanging fruit, it’s up to individuals at the end of the day to implement it or not implement it,” he said.
Farming
Sweeney believes that there is currently a risk to Ireland’s “clean green image”, which is promoted around the world.
“Maybe it’s time to recognise that the intensification model is broken, the classic intensification of agriculture based on further increases in inputs to produce further increases in outputs,” he said.
“Maybe it’s time to reassess that because the loss of environmental quality associated with intensification, I think it runs the risk that we will externally damage the image of Ireland.
“Once we damage or lose that image of the clean green island, our tourism industry begins to suffer, our agri-food exports begin to suffer.
“The future really is going to be dependent I think, on getting any future revision of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) based much more on a sustainable approach.
“The challenge which I think we have to recognise exists, is a way of supporting family farms as a component in a vibrant and sustainable agricultural economy,” he said.
Sweeney said that organic farming will be of benefit in achieving Ireland’s climate targets and can provide a sustainable future for Irish agriculture.
He noted that consumers are becoming more selective about what they eat and what the climate component of food products is.
An enhanced budget of €256 million has been allocated to the Organic Farming Scheme (OFS) over the lifetime of the new CAP, including higher payment rates as an incentive for participating farmers.
Climate change
Sweeney told the BioFarm 2023 conference that this year will “go down as the summer when we all realised that climate change is not something that is happening in Africa or happening away in distant lands, but is actually coming home to roost”.
He said that June, July, August and September were the warmest since records began and July was the warmest ever month on the planet.
“We’re living in the middle of climate change happening,” he said.
Sweeney said that the impacts of climate change have been seen across the world this year through wildfires, smog, droughts and floods.
“One of the things that I think has been quite different about this summer has been that we’ve had simultaneous extreme events all across the world.
“We’ve had temperatures in Spain of over 45°C, in America of over 53° and in Asia and China over the 50° mark,” he said.
He added that these extreme events are going to be a feature of our future climate.
“I expect this year will be the warmest year ever recorded followed by next year when the El Nino will be in full flight,” he said.
Ireland
Sweeney told the conference that Ireland emitted 68 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2022, which is the equivalent of one tonne per month per person.
He said that Ireland is emitting 50% more per capita in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than the European average “for various reasons, mostly connected with agriculture”.
Sweeney said that Ireland has “warmed up roughly the same as the global average and that’s our fate for the future”.
According to modelling, Ireland will experience heavier and more intense rainfall especially during the winter and in the western part of the country.
There will be less rainfall in the summer particularly in the east, which could lead to more competition during dry summers for water, Sweeney said.