A new Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) aiming to help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in agriculture has been launched today (Wednesday, July 12) by Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Charlie McConalogue.
The MACC identifies the most cost-effective pathways to cut GHG emissions and enhance carbon sequestration for the agriculture and land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors.
Last year, a 25% reduction in GHG emissions relative to 2018 levels was set for the Irish agriculture sector by 2030.
The setting of a sectoral emissions ceiling for LULUCF was deferred until later this year to allow for the completion of the government’s Land-Use Strategy.
Teagasc
A MACC is a graph which visualises the abatement potential of GHG mitigation measures, and the relative costs associated with each of these measures.
Teagasc said this updated MACC will help stakeholders make informed decisions about how to allocate resources for emissions reductions.
This is the third version of the Teagasc GHG MACC; previous iterations were published in 2012 and 2018.
The new MACC looks at three scenarios with differing levels of agricultural activity, based on different projected livestock numbers out to 2030.
The three potential scenarios all have lower livestock numbers in 2030 compared to the 2022 herd, and are based on the influence of existing policies and future market forces.
Scenario 1, seen as the most likely, predicts an 8% growth in dairy cow numbers and a 29% reduction in suckler cow numbers relative to 2022 by the end of the decade.
The second scenario assumes lower growth in dairy cow numbers (4% relative to 2022) and a higher reduction (-43%) in suckler cow numbers.
The third scenario examined assumed a stronger growth in dairy (12% relative to 2022) and weaker reductions (-16%) in suckler cow numbers.
Pathway 1 allows for high adoption rates of emission mitigation measures similar to the previous MACC, while the second assumes that there will be more ambitious adoption rates.
The new MACC shows this can be achieved under scenario 1 (base case or most likely scenario) with Pathway 2.
In other words, with projected livestock numbers of 6.785 million head in 2030, and with an ambitious level of technology adoption by farmers to mitigate GHGs.
The measures under Pathway 2 include:
- A three-month reduction in finishing age of cattle across the herd;
- Replacing 90% of calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) fertiliser and 100% of straight urea with protected urea;
- The use of feed additives to reduce enteric methane in half of dairy cows;
- The uptake of diversification options to displace 140,000 livestock units.
Emissions
Teagasc said that diversification into organic farming, increased tillage and forestry or biomethane feedstock production has the potential to aid in herd stabilisation and contribute to meeting emissions targets.
The authority added that bioenergy production based on biomethane and woody biomass can contribute significantly to the wider decarbonisation of the Irish energy sector.
Teagasc said that reductions in LULUCF emissions over 13% – the EU target – could not be achieved due to large uncertainties in emissions factors.
It said that refining emissions factors and land management data, particularly for peat soils, could change estimates “quite significantly”.
The report calls for an increase in advisory services which it said will be “key to helping guide farmers and landowners on the path to reduced GHG emissions by 2030 and towards climate neutrality”.
It added that continuing research and development of emission mitigation technologies remains a priority to enhance and expand the climate measures available to farmers.
Commenting at the launch, Prof. Frank O Mara, director of Teagasc, said:
“The Teagasc 2023 MACC shows that there is a technology pathway for the agriculture sector to meet its obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but it requires a very high uptake of the currently available mitigation measures and future technologies to achieve that.”
Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine Charlie McConalogue, added: “Achieving our emissions reduction target is going to take a collective effort by farmers, advisors, educators and the whole agri industry.
“The new Teagasc MACC sets out a pathway of technologies to achieve agriculture’s targets.
“Farmers have already started on the journey, using protected urea, low emission slurry spreading (LESS), reducing nitrogen application and by incorporating clover into their grass swards,” he said.