According to the latest beef kill figures, the factory supply of finished cattle in the first 15 weeks of this year is 23,500 head (excluding veal) behind figures from the same time last year.
While supplies are lower than last year, beef kills are remaining consistent in size, ranging between 31,000 head and 29,000 head for the past five consecutive weeks.
In the same five weeks of last year, weekly beef kills ranged from 23,000 head of cattle to 38,000 head of cattle.
The graph below shows the weekly beef kill to date this year compared to last year excluding veal:
As can be seen from the graph above, weekly kills are remaining more consistent in size this year, with four-day weeks causing very little deviation in kill sizes.
Last year’s figures show far higher deviation in weekly kill sizes. This year’s trend would indicate processors are conscious of the reduced availability of finished cattle and are reducing the size of their weekly kills in an effort to stretch supplies further into the off-season period in May and early June when supplies traditionally dip.
The table below shows the beef kill (excluding veal) in the first 15 weeks of this year and last year:
Category Week 15
2023Week 15
2022Cumulative
2023Cumulative
2022Cumulative
differenceYoung Bulls 1,639 1,910 39,560 45,679 -6,119 Bulls 482 605 6,917 7,153 -236 Steers 11,620 13,491 176,813 186,872 -10,059 Cows 7,040 8,026 114,105 113,575 +530 Heifers 8,961 9,912 148,032 155,699 -7,667 Total 29,742 33,944 485,427 508,978 -23,551
As can be seen from the table above, the only category which has grown in supply this year is the cow category.
This came as a surprise, however weekly cow kills are beginning to fall below last year’s equivalents and this is expected to continue into the second and third quarters of the year.
Beef prices appear to be remaining steady currently in line with supplies, however, if supplies begin to come under further pressure, or demand begins to further increase, price rises will be inevitable as supplies are expected to remain low for the second quarter of this year at least.