This week’s factory quotes sees the declining beef-price trend become more apparent as price quotes for finished cattle move in a downward trajectory across the board.
Prime cattle quotes have fallen by up to 15c/kg from where they peaked in mid-April and while there is still some scope to secure 5-10c/kg above the factory price quotes, the trade overall appears to be moving in a downward direction.
The move by processors to reduce beef prices comes as a surprise to beef finishers as this time last year, prices were increasing in increments of 10-15c/kg on a weekly basis, despite supplies being higher.
Late-May and into early June is traditionally the time of year when shed-finished cattle numbers decline and the new-season grass-finished cattle numbers begin to pick up.
Procurement staff seem confident that kill sheets will be filled to the required capacity over the coming two weeks and that supplies of finished grass cattle will come on stream in the coming few weeks.
However, with the wet conditions experienced in March, April and early May of this year, the spring-thrive has been subdued on many of these cattle at grass which could delay their finish date, resulting in fewer cattle available in early June.
With figures available up to Sunday, May 14, weekly supplies of finished cattle remained between 30-32,000 head for the previous 10 consecutive weeks. The cumulative beef kill to date this year is over 35,000 head below last year (excluding veal).
It remains unclear how available finished cattle will be heading into June but the supply has been forecast to fall by 50-60,000 head in total this year, according to Bord Bia projections.
Assuming the demand for beef picks up over the coming weeks as European countries head in to the summer barbequing season and supplies of cattle remain stretched, a strengthening demand could help stabilise beef price.
However, a look at the Bord Bia beef market tracker shows Irish beef price is remaining above the export benchmark price which has fallen by 10c/kg since its peak in early to mid April of this year.
As of Saturday, May 6, the Irish composite beef price was 31c/kg above the export benchmark price.
In the first five months of this year, the Irish composite beef price has remained above the export benchmark price. From January to the third week of May last year, the Irish composite beef price was below the export benchmark price.