Sheepmeat and livestock manager, Seamus McMenamin.
There has been a positive start to the year for the Irish sheepmeat sector, with reported deadweight prices trending above previous year’s levels.
The average reported price for the week ending February 24 was €7.32/kg, up from €6.01/kg in the corresponding week in 2023.
There has also been a strong liveweight trade reported in the marts, with firm demand for hoggets that meet current market specifications for both the domestic and export markets.
The current stability in the sheep trade is being maintained in part by the tighter availability of suitable sheep for slaughter.
However, there is an expectation of supplies to pick up as the year progresses, with an additional 40,000 hoggets forecasted to have been carried into 2024.
Increased demand for sheep meat is expected around Ramadan (March 10 to April 8) and Easter Sunday (March 31) which should help absorb these animals into the system.
Lamb Consumption
There was some recovery in demand for Irish sheepmeat in the final months of 2023 across our key market outlets, and this has carried through into the early weeks of 2024.
Kantar data for the Irish retail market shows an increase of 2.3% in sheepmeat sales to reach €70.7 million in 2023.
This increase was driven by additional buyers in the category, an increase in volume sales and a slight increase in average retail prices.
Feedback from the key lamb processors has indicated more positivity from Irish retailers in stocking lamb and increasing visibility on retail shelves as a result.
Analysis of the Kantar data for 2023 has also indicated some welcome growth in lamb consumption amongst younger consumers (under 45), which has coincided with the availability and growth in value-added and ready-to-cook products.
There have also been some more positive signs for lamb consumption in Irish food service in recent months.
The EU remains the priority market outlet for Irish sheepmeat with exports in the final months of 2023 on par with the previous year.
Feedback from Bord Bia’s European Shopper Insights work across key export markets has indicated higher levels of consideration for lamb among consumers.
Irish supply outlook
While the December 2023 sheep census figures have not been published some further contraction in Irish ewe numbers is possible with CSO figures collected in June 2023, indicating a three percent decline in the breeding flock.
However, with reports of relatively good scanning results this year the impact on spring lamb supplies may be minimal, provided we have favourable production conditions for the 2024 lambing season.
Fall in EU and UK sheep production
The EU ewe flock is also expected to decline further in 2024 (-1.5%), with declines in many sheep producing regions including Spain, France, Italy and Greece.
This is expected to contribute to a 1% decline in EU sheepmeat production this year. Consumption is expected to hold stable with the reduction in food inflation rates allowing more price sensitive consumers to come back into the category.
The latest forecast from AHDB in the UK has indicated a tightening in sheepmeat supplies this year which will reduce product availability for export.
This is expected to be most apparent in the first half of the year with the hogget carryover into 2024 forecast to be back 10% from 2023 levels.
The UK lamb crop for the 2024 season is predicted to be 16.4m head, an increase of 2% from last year, which is expected to boost lamb supplies marginally towards the second half of the year.
EU sheepmeat imports
Declining domestic production in the EU combined with a wide price differential between northern and southern hemisphere sheep prices has made the EU a more attractive market for imported sheepmeat which competes directly against Irish product.
While some increases in EU imports from New Zealand and Australia are expected in 2024, no further increase in UK imports are forecast following several years of growth.
Bord Bia lamb campaigns
International markets are a small but important element of the Irish sheepmeat sector, taking 15% of Irish sheepmeat exports. Asian markets make up approximately one third of this international sheepmeat trade.
To support the growth of these emerging markets, Bord Bia is running a three year campaign, co-funded by the EU, to promote lamb and beef across three Asian markets (China, Japan, South Korea) and the US.
The total campaign budget is €4.8 million over three years.
Upcoming activity as part of the campaign includes participation in one of the largest food trade shows in Asia, Foodex in Tokyo, Japan from March 5th to 8th.
On the eve of Foodex, Bord Bia will welcome key Japanese customers to a special seminar showcasing lamb and beef.
While lamb is a less common choice for Japanese consumers, consumption has increased in recent years, and imports stand at approximately 15,000t of sheepmeat annually.
