This month saw increases in beef prices stall after moving up by approximately 50c/kg since last November, and many farmers are wondering: ‘Have prices peaked for the year, or is there more to come?’
After enjoying weekly price increases throughout December and January, factory beef price increases stalled after the February bank holiday weekend, with cuts of 5c/kg placed on higher prime cattle prices since then.
The stronger cow prices have also come under pressure in the past two weeks, in particular for O and P grade cows. Price quotes for R and U grade cows (which make up the minority of the cow kill) have held relatively steady.
Despite projections that the factory supply of finished cattle will fall this year, the beef kill has in fact increased to date this year with cull dairy cows predominantly attributing to this rise.
In January of 2024, 10,926 beef-bred cows were slaughtered at DAFM approved factories, down 583 head from the 11,509 beef-bred (or suckler) cows slaughtered in January 2023.
Alternatively, 29,715 dairy cows were slaughtered at DAFM-approved factories in January 2023, up 6,552 head from the 23,163 head of dairy cows slaughtered in January of 2023.
While price increases may have stagnated for now, cattle supply projections would suggest a tightening in prime cattle supplies from the second half of March as well as into April and possibly May.
If this materialises and demand for beef remains strong, market conditions could well be in a position to deliver additional beef price increases into March and April.
A look at the Bord Bia cattle price dashboard shows that annual beef price trends tend to deliver the highest returns in the second quarter of the year before falling in the third quarter, and them bottoming out and beginning to increase again into the end of the fourth quarter.
While this trend materialised both last year and the previous year, market conditions can change unexpectedly, which can impact prices and the trends that are usually seen in Irish beef markets.