Over the weekend, to coincide with the official confirmation of carbon budgets to cover the period from now until 2030, the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCCAC) also released a technical report on how these targets are going to be met.
We’ve already outlined the various scenarios that the agricultural sector may have to face in the coming years, but the CCAC considers that a separate issue from land use, land use change and forestry, which is refers to by the shortened version of LULUCF.
LULUCF was a a net source of 4.8MT of CO2 equivalent in 2018. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), emissions from the sector are set to increase to 7.1MT CO2eq by 2030, something that will have to be reversed, according to the CCAC.
Within the LULUCF sector, grassland is the largest source of emissions, at 7MT CO2eq in 2018. Wetlands are also a net source of emissions within the LULUCF sector, emitting 2.5MT CO2eq in 2018. Forest land was a net remover of CO2, taking in 4MT CO2 eq in 2018. However, forest land is set to become a net source of emissions by 2030, due in part to the failure to meet afforestation targets.
However, removals arising from harvested wood products are set to increase.
The CCAC argues that, for LULUCF to meet a 51% reduction (the national target for cutting emissions by 2030 under the carbon budgets), afforestation rates would have to hit 20,000ha per year by 2028 – at present that rate is only about 2,500ha.
However, the CCAC said it doesn’t necessarily endorse a 51% reduction for the sector.
The report cites Teagasc research that “multiple pathways exist” to reduce emissions in the LULUCF sector, including rewetting of peatlands, improved management of mineral and organic soils under grasslands, cropland management and increased afforestation.
Modelling carried out by the University of Limerick (UL) outlines a potential scenario in which LULUCF can cut emissions by 51% by 2030 (though a 51% reduction for that sector has not been confirmed by government).
This model would see 139,000ha of cumulative afforestation by 2030, 112,601ha of grassland rewetted, and 62,637ha of peatland rewetted.
(Bear in mind that this is based on an assumed reduction target of 51%. There is no indication from government yet what the target for this sector will be).
According to Teagasc, around 40% of organic grasslands are farmed under specialised cattle systems; 30% are farmed by specialised sheep production systems and 25% by dairy farm systems, with the remainder in tillage production.
The CCAC says that, as cattle and sheep production systems are, on average, of a lower intensity, then agricultural activity could continue on rewetted land, albeit at lower levels of intensity.
The report also states that farm support and payments through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) would be necessary to protect incomes for farmers on land that was rewetted.
Incomes losses would be “significant” for dairy and tillage farmers who had land rewetted.
Rewetting projects would also require “a strong level of social acceptance”, the CCAC said.