A report released at the weekend from the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) predicts lower cattle numbers and lower output of agricultural produce as part of Ireland’s reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
It comes as the CCAC confirms the ‘carbon budgets‘ for the period to 2030.
The report, titled the Carbon Budget Technical Report, outlines five scenarios for agriculture, and what each will entail for the sector. Each of these scenarios includes any measures that are already planned for or underway under the Ag Climatise strategy – launched last December – to reduce emissions from the sector.
The five scenarios (which are based on modelling done by Teagasc) are as follows:
- Scenario A (No additional measures apart from those outlined in Ag Climatise) – to deliver a 17% reduction in agricultural emissions by 2030;
- Scenario C – to deliver a 20% reduction in agricultural emissions by 2030;
- Scenario D – to deliver a 33% reduction in agricultural emissions by 2030;
- Scenario E – to deliver a 40% reduction in agricultural emissions by 2030;
- Scenario F – to deliver a 55% reduction in agricultural emissions by 2030.
(Scenario B, which entails a stabilised dairy herd size, was not included in the CCAC report.)
As has already been reported, the targeted emissions reduction by 2030 for agriculture is set to be between 21% and 30% relative to 2018 emissions (though this has not yet been confirmed by government).
Therefore, an approach to emissions reduction resembling scenarios C or D would seem the most likely course of action for government (as these scenarios produce an emissions cut of 20% and 33% respectively).
These scenarios do not include any potential offsetting from land use, land use change or forestry.
According to the CCAC, measures to cut emissions – over and above mitigation measures – would have to relate directly to “change in bovine activity levels”.
This would then lead to a reduction in agricultural output value and sectoral income, unless other income streams are developed. A reduction in employment related to the sector would also occur.
In scenario C, dairy cows decrease from their current numbers to a level comparable with 2018, while suckler numbers decrease by over 300,000 head by 2030 (compared to 2018). In scenario D, dairy cow numbers decrease by about 200,000 head compared to 2018, while suckler cows are severely reduced to a fifth of 2018 numbers.
The below table outlines the potential changes to both total cow numbers and total cattle numbers, and the resulting emissions from the sector, expressed in MT of CO2 equivalent (scenario A is referred to here as ‘business as usual’ – BAU):
In terms of output, scenario C would see a reduction in the value of total agricultural output of €719 million (compared to ‘business as usual’ in scenario A), a decrease of 7% by 2030. By sector, this would see the value of milk output fall by €478 million (a 14% fall) while cattle output would fall by €255 million (10%).
In scenario D, the overall value of agricultural output decreases by €1.89 billion (19%), with the value of milk output declining by €557 million (30%) and the value of cattle output by €541 million (37%).
The below table outlines these figures:
In terms of employment – including downstream employment, for example, in the processing sector – the decline in output value arising from a cut in employment related to the milk sector would be €478 million in scenario C, accompanied by 2,878 jobs lost.
The output value from employment related to the cattle sector in scenario C would fall by €255 million, with job losses of 2,871.
In scenario D, the output value for milk sector employment will decline by €557 million, reflecting 3,352 jobs lost. The output for cattle sector employment falls by €541 million, reflecting job losses of 6,107.
The below table outlines these details:
The CCAC report says that the development of the Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plan (CSP) is “very relevant to achieving ambitious mitigation while respecting climate justice”.
“The critical role of farmers in the management of carbon stocks such as wetlands, grasslands and forestry should be acknowledged and farmers should be incentivised to adopt measurable and verifiable practices that sequester carbon,” it adds.