The tractor registration figures for the whole of 2023 are not yet available from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), but the month of December is traditionally a slow one for the trade so looking at the year to-date should provide a good indication of how it fared last year.
Looking first at the November figures for the past five years, there appears to be a dramatic fall from 2022, with sales not only dropping by 38 units, but falling well under the five-year average of 117 machines.
Year Sept Oct Nov 3-month total 2023 154 122 98 374 2022 186 146 136 468 2021 193 163 131 487 2020 177 131 125 433 2019 118 94 93 305 Average 166 131 117 413
There were certainly concerns within the machinery business that the wet autumn was having a negative impact on trade, an understandable concern as tillage harvesters struggled to get the harvest in.
However, most tractors will have a six-month to one-year lead time, so a fall in registrations in November will reflect the negative sentiment earlier in the year.
It was likely to have been the wet spring which would have moderated the urge to spend on new tractors, despite the six weeks of good weather that allowed the silage campaign to proceed without serious interruption.
Figures fall below average
This might sound a reasonable explanation but it does not account for the fact that, overall, registrations for the year so far have come in just under the five-year average, indicating that sales at the start of the year were more buoyant.
Year Year to November 2023 2,253 2022 2,313 2021 2,405 2020 2,119 2019 2,089 Average 2,256
The table for the registration figures up until November shows that 2023 was only a whisper below average, confirming that it was still a sound year for the trade overall.
What is clear from the this year’s autumn figures is that they dropped away significantly compared to the previous three years and lie well below the five-year average.
Machinery manufacturers from across the board have been sounding warning bells for some months now about an expected reduction in farm spending and have forecast a tough few years ahead.
Their fears appear to be realistic when considering the registration numbers from the last part of this year.
It will be another month before we know of how 2024 has kicked off, but nobody is expecting this month’s sales totals to break any records.