The biggest item already set in the political calendar for 2024 is the date for the European Parliamentary elections.
Broadly the ballot may look similar in Ireland but across Europe the political landscape is quite different.
The big election talking point in 2019 was ‘The Green Wave’ that swept across the continent pushing forward the agenda of environmentalism that birthed the ‘Green New Deal’ and ‘The Farm to Fork Strategy’ greatly affecting farming at home and abroad.
Only a mix of hyperinflation and the Russian invasion of Ukraine put a damper on many of the more ambitious targets and goals within the green reform of agriculture.
2024 election looks set to be decidedly different. Many EU political commentators have accused those within the centre-right parties of chasing votes gained by populists within the Netherlands and Italy by shifting their policies further right.
Others have suggested the climate events happening across the continent might result in more gains for Greens if they can motivate the younger generation to vote.
Of course, each country will have its own domestic issues driving its electorate. Ask an Austrian why ‘The Beer Party’ currently has 10% of the vote in polls if you get a chance.
Unlike 2019, both agriculture and food prices will be more central to the conversation. A fact that will be crystalised in the planned EU ‘Strategic Dialogue’ on agriculture in 2024.
Falling emission for agriculture, rising transport and aviation
On the back of falling fertiliser purchases, reduced milk production and beef numbers, it’s a safe bet that Irish agriculture will see its emissions drop when figures for 2023 are released in 2024.
I would almost bet the farming will be the sector to come closest to its climate commitments.
Electric vehicle (EV) uptake hasn’t been close to high enough to account for the massive increase in car journeys and pointless urban SUVs driving transport emissions up.
While electricity has reduced generation from coal/oil versus 2022, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) predicts, based on provisional data, that overall energy will still fall short of its mandated 4.8% annual cut.
Mid housing crisis, I doubt the construction sector is overly worried about its emissions profile. The target set for farming may be the only one that is achieved or close to achieved; let’s see if farm leadership can leverage that.
What to do about Ukraine
Unfortunately, it is beyond any writer to give a definitive answer on what will happen militarily in Ukraine in 2024, and certainly beyond me, but that isn’t the only issue on the lips of European policymakers.
Likely the ongoing fight between EU trade authorities and eastern European member states will continue over imports from the country, but with the proposal passing to begin considering Ukraine for membership of the EU, a new issue may take centre stage.
A massive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform would be required to facilitate Ukraine’s ascension as it contains almost one quarter of all Europe’s farmland with 26 million hectares of crops planted before the invasion.
The outgoing EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski has already stated that further capping would be needed on basic payments if the EU moves closer to letting Ukraine join the club.
Expect more of that discussion in preparation of the CAP reform proposals due in 2025.
More environmental court cases
Environmental groups are no strangers to taking legal reviews, after all it’s what An Taisce is best known for and the group called ‘Friends of the Irish Environmental’ seem to have it as their sole purpose, in my opinion.
However, the sweeping cases are something we will likely see grow in 2024.
While An Taisce’s case against the entire nitrates programme will continue into 2024 at home, abroad, groups seeing the Dutch case forcing the closure of farms as a success, will push to use the courts to force policy even more.
Supported by cross country groups like Client Earth and facilitated by ‘no win – no pay’ legal representation, it’ll only ratchet up the tension between farm groups and environmentalists.
New batch of farm leaders, same old tactics?
Christmas is a time for tractor parades, and frankly the only time you should be seeing them in towns or cities outside of charity events.
A confusion about whether we are Irish or French seems to have settled over too many in the Irish farming community since 2019.
For the French, stunts like manure dumps or straw fires are normal. A French farming group can both be outside piling on the muck while inside doing deals. It’s expected and part of their very national identity.
The Irish however? I fail to think of a single time this tactic has worked. Stunts are well and good, protests important and necessary, but hopefully the new batch of farm leadership will get back to more effective tactics in 2024.