African swine fever (ASF) is set to remain as a major factor in influencing the worldwide trade of pork, according to a new report.
In their ‘World Pork Map 2023’, Rabobank has said ASF will continue to “impact production both directly (in Asia) and indirectly (in Europe) through trade restrictions”.
Following the first recorded ASF outbreak in Germany, Rabobank said Spain benefitted most from the trade restrictions imposed on German pork.
As Germany increased its exports within Europe due to the trade restrictions, Spain exported more to third countries, as it exported to China, Japan, and South Korea in particular, filling the gap left by Germany.
Pork exports
The impact of ASF can also be seen through the comparison of the pork exports from Germany and Spain.
In 2022, 12% of total German pork exports went to third countries, versus 31% in 2018, while in Spain, the export share of destinations outside Europe increased from 43% in 2018 to 55% in 2022.
In Italy, exports were also affected by trade restrictions following the ASF outbreak in the beginning of 2022 as the volume of pork there reduced by 8% compared to 12 months previously.
Recent prices
In week 37 (ending Sunday, September 17), the average price for a pig with an ‘S’ carcass class in the EU was €231.5/100kg, a 7.8% increase since one year previously.
An ‘E’ carcass class saw an average price of €228.7/100kg, an increase of 8.1% since the same time in 2022.
A pig carcass of the ‘R’ class reached an average price of €271.2/100kg, an increase of 13.9% since week 37, 2022.
Pork forecasts
According to the report, expanding the acceptance of the EU’s regionalisation policy for ASF to countries outside Europe would be key to mitigating the impact of the disease on trade.
The EU’s regionalisation policy currently imposes export restrictions from ASF-affected areas, while avoiding trade restrictions in unaffected areas.
Rabobank has highlighted that the global competitiveness of European producers is expected to deteriorate due to increasing sustainability and animal welfare standards and the need for investment in these areas.
Although European pork exports to third countries are still strong, these exports are expected to decline in the coming years, as Rabobank also said “processors are likely to have a better chance generating a return on the upcoming investments in the European market”.
There is also an expected decline in pork consumption in Europe, which the bank believes will be offset by growth in other parts of the world.