So Eddie Downey believes there could be a downside for Ireland, after Brazil withdrew from the Chinese beef market.
It’s a point of view that I am strongly at odds with.
The former Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA) president spoke at a recent Fine Gael meeting in Galway, shortly after the confirmation of a bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) case in the South American country.
I’m not sure if the Brazilian authorities jumped before the authorities in Beijing made the decision for them. But the end result is still the same – China will now be scouring the world looking to make up for the beef shortfall that has been created by the Brazilian debacle.
And surely this has to be good news for Ireland.
Brazilian BSE case
Given the fact that direct sales of beef from this country to China were kick-started just a few months ago, one must surely expect that the opportunities for local processers to further supply that market will increase exponentially during the period ahead.
So where’s the downside to that bit of business taking place?
More generally, Brazil’s departure from the Chinese market should also help to tighten the international supply of beef – one would think.
And in a world where supply and demand fundamentally controls prices, again one would be drawn to the conclusion that international beef markets should start to strengthen.
Mind you, beef returns are currently at record beef levels. And if the China/Brazil factor does nothing more than keep prices at present levels, it will still count as a positive for Irish livestock farmers.
So should we have any sympathy for Brazil as that country faces up to its BSE challenge? I don’t think so.
No letters from Brazil
Here in Ireland, we have had more than our fair share of issues to contend with, where BSE is concerned. No-one of a certain age will ever forget the madness of 1996 and the aftermath that followed.
And then there was the 2015 BSE case confirmed in a cow in Co Louth. Immediately thereafter, the international authorities stepped in and reviewed the matter.
It didn’t take them long to downgrade Ireland’s official BSE status.
And I don’t remember any letters of sympathy winging their way from Brazilia to Dublin at the time.
No-one in their right mind would ever wish ill on another country. But if an opportunity arises, then the Irish beef industry has every right to grasp it.
And this is the context within which the confirmed BSE case in Brazil should be assessed, in my opinion.