The size and health of the national tractor fleet is usually considered through the monthly sales figures, with attention focusing on annual comparisons.
Fascinating as these figures are, they only provide a snapshot of the current market rather than a full-scale picture of how the tractor market is evolving and the number of tractors that are working on Irish farms.
While our attention is drawn to the monthly yo-yo-ing of sales figures, the accumulation of the data over the years has thrown up an unexpected trend, and that is, despite the gradual fall off in the number of units sold over the years, the actual number of tractors working on Irish farms, has been slowly increasing since 2018.
This conclusion, based on the figures as shown in the table below, makes the assumption that the number of tractors licenced is a true reflection of the number of tractors working.
There are many reasons why it might not be a direct correlation, but it is probably a fair indication of a trend, if not a clinically precise method of determining the number of tractors that are active.
Year Tractors under licence 2021 83,663 2020 78,845 2019 76,581 2018 75,950 2017 80,474 2016 80,695 2015 83,069 2014 85,823 2013 90,329 2012 63,927 2010 64,686 2009 67,503 2008 70,294 2007 70,542
The fall and rise of tractor use
There were two distinct phases of tractor registration over the past 15 years. The first, from 2007 until 2012, showed a slowly declining fleet figure as would be expected from reports of the average power per unit increasing.
There then comes the hiccup of 2013, a year in which a whopping 11,001 new and used tractors were first registered, which suggests either a change in legislation or the way in which they are counted, rather than a massive buying spree.
We then enter another period of decline, albeit with a higher total number of tractors, until 2019 when the trend reversed and the number of working tractors started to ascend again.
So far we only have three years of this trend and will need to wait until the new year for 2022’s total, which may confirm the trend or suggest that it is just a blip.
Surplus of horsepower
However, if we take it at face value, there does appear to be an increase in the number of tractors working in Ireland, which is something of a puzzle as the average power of new tractors has also been increasing, leaving the country generously replete with total power available.
Quite what this means for future tractor sales is anyone’s guess.
There might be a dip as this excess exhausts itself, or the rising trend might suggest a continuing quest for new metal and a reluctance to part with the old.
This latter point is validated somewhat by reports from the trade that good used stock is hard to come by which, it is suggested, is due to changing farming methods and certain machines, such as diet feeders, being assigned a dedicated tractor to power them.
Longer silage hauls may also be a factor and perhaps there is a fear that modern electronics may stop a tractor dead for no apparent reason and so it is best to have some sort of mechanical back-up.
Whatever the reasons, and there is bound to be more than one, it does indicate that despite the claims of increased efficiency of individual machines, taken as a whole, the efficiency of tractor use in Ireland may actually be declining.