UK wheat imports in 2023/2024 could reach 2.00Mt according to the latest available supply and demand estimates from the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB).
These figures confirm that the import pace has remained firm so far this season, a reflection of both the poor quality of the 2023 harvest and worries about the 2024 harvest.
As a result, AHDB has increased its forecast of total season imports from the 1.75Mt predicted in January to 2.00Mt.
This would be the highest level of wheat imports since 2020/2021.
Wheat and animal feed
The total demand forecast for wheat is also slightly higher than in January, up 33Kt to 14.86Mt, now 287Kt higher than last season.
A slight dip in expected human and industrial (H&I) usage, down 36Kt from what was predicted in January, is offset by increased animal feed demand, according to AHDB.
The reduction in H&I usage is linked to lower-than-forecast data in recent months for brewing, malting, and distilling, plus the fall in ethanol prices over winter.
The increasing competitiveness of maize for some uses is also a factor in this context.
Meanwhile, animal feed is supported by slightly more on-farm feeding of barley and wheat, expected due the falls in grain prices, including some recovery in demand by integrated poultry units and for compound cattle feed.
According to AHDB analysts, the forecast rise in imports more than offsets the small uptick in demand, meaning end of season stocks are pegged 247Kt higher than in January at just less than 2.80Mt.
Larger stocks look likely to be needed though, with sharply lower crop areas for harvest 2024 and crop conditions looking poor.
Crop development
AHDB has also released its first crop development report of 2024. It reflects crop conditions based on information up to March 26, 2024 and confirms the widespread poor condition of all winter crops.
High rainfall levels over winter have continued to take their toll on winter crops in all parts of the UK.
The worst conditions have been in the East Midlands and neighbouring regions of the West Midlands, East, and Yorkshire and the Humber.
As a result, crop condition ratings are sharply lower year-on-year. Just 34% of GB winter wheat is rated in a good or excellent condition as of late March (data collected for AHDB by The Andersons Centre).
This is a marked drop from last year, when 90% of the crop was rated good or excellent.