The Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) is projecting that Irish tillage incomes will remain, basically, unchanged in 2024.
This puts the expected figure in the region of €20,000.
A number of factors have been assessed by DAFM analysts in coming up with this projection.
Where EU feed wheat production in 20124 is concerned, output is expected to come in at 122.3Mt. This is down on 2023/24.
Meanwhile, demand for animal feeds and EU exports are expected to decrease due to lower availability. It is also anticipated that there will be moderate recovery in human/industrial demand for wheat in the EU this year.
Where barley is concerned, 2024 EU production levels are forecast to reach 51.3Mt in 2024, compared to 47.5Mt in 2023.
EU maize production is estimated to decrease slightly in 202 to 62Mt, compared to 62.6Mt in 2023.
Irish tillage
Significantly, DAFM has projected that total production of Irish cereals in 2024 is likely to be down by 139,000t, which represents a 7% decrease on the 2023 levels.
Current world grain markets are subject to decreasing global harvests on the one hand, with demand continuing to be influenced by inflation on the other.
Specific wheat and barley signals at present indicate another decrease in harvest price in 2024 relative to 2023.
In addition, farm gate ‘on account’ cereal prices on offer in the third week in July 2024 are between 5% and 10% lower than prices paid at harvest 2023.
With a forecast reduction in world ending stocks to use ratios, European wheat and barley prices may increase for the current year as a whole.
However, harvest pressure will continue to be exerted and will likely prevent prices from rising sharply in the near term.
On the positive side, of the equation, DAFM is forecasting that total costs on a whole tillage farm basis for 2024 will be about 8% lower, compared to 2023.
This takes account of decreases in fertiliser, seed and electricity costs. Bucking this trend is the strengthening of some fuel and plant protection costs.
The end result of these projected trends is a steady-as-she-goes scenario for tillage incomes: 2024 versus 2023.
With lower cereal prices and a decrease in production volume, Irish cereal market based output value is forecast to fall again in 2024.
Total production costs in 2024 are forecast to decrease, but not enough to compensate for the decline in market based output value.