EU beef consumption and production is expected to continue declining from now until 2035, according to the latest EU Agricultural Outlook 2023-2035.
EU beef production is estimated to fall by 0.6 million tonne by 2035, which is a reduction of 9.2% compared with the 2021-2023 average, according to the outlook report by the European Commission.
The EU cow herd is set to decrease by 3.4 million heads over the same period, representing a total decrease of 11%.
The dairy herd is expected to decline progressively, while the suckler cow herd is set to decrease to 9.5 million heads by 2035.
This is a decrease of 900,000 heads or down 8.6% compared with 2021-2023.
Beef consumption
EU beef consumption is also set to remain “challenged” by high price consumer health and sustainability concerns, according to the report.
Looking at this year, EU beef consumption decreased because of these challenges, according to the commission.
It stated that this downward trend is likely to be “sustained”. By 2035, per capita beef consumption is estimated to drop from 10kg per year to 9.5kg per year, resulting in a drop of 6.9%.
Lower consumption, combined with low profitability, stricter environmental and climate regulatory framework, is expected to lead to further production decline by 2035.
A shift to organic and more extensive production systems may “partially counteract” the trend, according to the report.
The report also stated that while coupled income support and eco-schemes under the new CAP, together with a relatively good price outlook will help slowing down the continued trend, it will not reverse it.
Global demand
Beef meat exports are due to grow slowly between now and 2035 by 2.1 million, due to a greater demand from China, Vietnam and sub-Saharan Africa.
EU exports of live bovine animals are expected to decline gradually for that time, due to increased competition and existing concerns about animal welfare with long-distance transport.
Overall demand for animal feed in the EU is forecast to fall by 3.5 % by 2035.
Increased production costs in the EU and a declining output of beef may result in prices settling at a higher level than in the past, reaching around €5,100/t by 2035.