According to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), Australia can look forward to a bumper grain harvest.
Winter crop production for this season (2022/2023) is forecast to reach 62MT, the second highest on record.
A third consecutive La Nina has brought rainfall over spring. Record spring rainfall caused flooding and as such, crop losses in eastern states.
However, improvements in production in Western Australia and southern states outweighed losses in eastern states.
This was due to favourable conditions, with the wet and cool spring bringing soil moisture and extending grain fill, and the dry end to spring benefitting harvesting, the AHDB said.
Grain harvest
For this season’s grain harvest, total wheat production is forecast at a record high of 36.6MT (up 1% year-on-year) and rapeseed production to reach a new record at 7.3MT (up 4% year-on-year).
While barley production is forecast down 4% on the year at 13.4MT, this is still the fourth largest on record.
The 2022/2023 barley production has been revised up 9% on September’s estimate. Oat production is forecast down 8% on the year, to 1.5MT.
Crop losses were seen in eastern states, especially in New South Wales (NSW) where waterlogged fields in part caused a reduction in winter crop planted area.
Production for 2022/2023 is forecasted down for wheat (down 28%), barley (down 33%), rapeseed (down 35%) and oats (down 20%) on the year for NSW.
Australia and global markets
Australian supplies are important to the global market. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Australian exports for 2022/2023 for wheat at 26MT (joint 3rd largest globally), for barley at 7.2MT (top global exporter), for rapeseed at 5.2MT and oats at 0.5MT (both projected to be 2nd largest globally).
With Black Sea supplies pressuring the market in recent weeks, the addition of large quantities of Australian production could also weigh on global markets.
According to AHDB, this is already happening, where European grain prices are concerned. However, global supply and demand remain tight for grains.
In contrast, global rapeseed supply looks plentiful.
Freight will remain key for the availability of Australian supplies globally. Meanwhile, rainfall in December for some areas of that country, remains a watch point for harvest progress and grain quality.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has forecast the chance of exceeding median rainfall in December to be below 50% for much of Australia.
However, eastern regions e.g., Victoria, are likely to receive above average rainfall. This could delay the harvest. It could also lead to a higher proportion of low-protein wheat, should rains arrive.