An Taisce has called for “highly effective, emergency course-correction measures” to be introduced to ensure Ireland meets its climate targets.
The environmental body said analysis it has undertaken shows that Ireland’s “carbon budgeting situation is further off track” than the latest projections published by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
The EPA warned last week that Ireland will miss its 2030 climate targets unless “all sectors of the economy deliver emission reductions in the short term and sustain this delivery into the future”.
EPA
According to the EPA almost all sectors are on a trajectory to “exceed their national sectoral emissions” ceilings for 2025 and 2030, including agriculture, electricity transport and industry.
The EPA stated in its “Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) Projections 2022-2040” report that the first two carbon budgets (2021-2030) will not be met “by a significant margin”.
An Taisce
But an Taisce claims there is important information “missing” from the EPA projections report.
According to Emeritus Professor John Sweeney the “reality of the current emissions trajectory toward the end of 2025 means a carbon budget overshoot to be removed from the 2026-30 budget”.
But he said it is “so significant” that it will be much more difficult for the next government to stay within the legal requirement.
“This means that highly effective emergency course-correction measures must be immediately enacted by the present government to limit the overshoot,” Prof. Sweeney warned.
The latest EPA GHG report detailed two emissions projection scenarios – With Existing Measures (WEM) and With Additional Measures (WAM) .
According to an Taisce the percentage reductions required by 2030 will be much greater than 51% “even if the most optimistic (WAM) trajectory is followed to 2025”.
The environmental body has also claimed that there is also a basic budget maths issue” with EPA report and it has written to the agency to request “that they clarify the projections report’s analysis”.
An Taisce said: “Political accountability for climate targets and timely climate action course corrections are essential to meeting Ireland’s declared carbon budget obligations.
“It is crucial that the EPA and government departments accurately portray projections and progress relative to carbon budgets, correctly reflecting the Climate Act.”