Farmers will likely face more heavy rainfall issues in the short term because of evolving climate conditions, according to Met Éireann.
The national meteorological service today (Monday, June 19) published the first climate projections from the TRANSLATE research initiative – which includes the University of Galway, University College Cork and Met Éireann.
The new climate projections set out a “warming climate signal for Ireland” including:
- Increases in temperature across all greenhouse scenarios;
- Decrease in the frequency of cold winter nights;
- 10-fold increase in the frequency of warm summer nights by the end of the century;
- Increase in the number of heatwaves – a heatwave in Ireland is defined as a period of 5 consecutive days where the daily maximum temperature is greater than 25°C.
According to TRANSLATE projections “annual precipitation” – rainfall – will also increase and although there will be seasonal variability in projected amounts with possible drier summers and wetter winters, the “overall annual signal is one of increase”.
Met Éireann
Keith Lambkin, head of climate services at Met Éireann, said that this will most likely cause “water management problems” for Irish agriculture.
Lambkin said that a warmer atmosphere will lead to increased rainfall in Ireland.
“From an agricultural point of view, with heavy rainfall in the winter and longer, drier summers, this could lead to water management problems” Lambkin added.
But he believes that the TRANSLATE research initiative could help support farmers to manage the impact of climate conditions.
“Easily accessible and understandable climate information is vital to support decisions which address key climate issues and risks that impact the public and all sectors of society.
“The insights gained to date really demonstrate the value of the TRANSLATE approach. This collaborative initiative is already playing a key role in informing government and sectoral climate planners.
“TRANSLATE outputs are being used to help improve climate resilience, for example in our built environment ensuring future buildings and critical infrastructure can handle more extreme heat conditions and that road drainage can manage changes in rainfall patterns,” Lambkin added.
Met Éireann released the first climate projections from the TRANSLATE initiative at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference 2023 (ECCA) which is being held in Dublin this week.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) also launched its State of the Climate in Europe 2022 report to co-incide with the ECCA conference.
According to the WMO climate change is taking a “major human, economic and environmental toll in Europe” which is now the fastest warming continent of the world.
The report highlights that there was “extreme heat, drought and wildfires” last year.
Dr Carlo Buontempo, director, Copernicus Climate Change Service said: “The record-breaking heat stress that Europeans experienced in 2022 was one of the main drivers of weather-related excess deaths in Europe.
“Unfortunately, this cannot be considered a one-off occurrence or an oddity of the climate. Our current understanding of the climate system and its evolution informs us that these kinds of events are part of a pattern that will make heat stress extremes more frequent and more intense across the region.”