At Ploughing 2025, Agriland caught up with the Dawn Meats group development manager Paul Nolan to hear his review of the 2025 beef trade and outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2026.

Nolan explained there was "a perfect storm" for beef price positivity this year but noted the impact this has had on markets.

He said: "Generally speaking, the world at large has had a reduction in cattle numbers, which is somewhat remarkable that it should happen everywhere at the same time.

"As a result, the supply-demand rule kicked in, prices rose due to scarcity."

Commenting on how these price rises have impacted beef sales, Nolan said: "Most of the beef in the western world is purchased in supermarkets and the supermarket people held back as much as they could the price rises that were coming but eventually they have had to pass some of it on to the consumer.

"What we're seeing only now is the real effect of the price rises and the consumer is somewhat reticent - not not buying meat but certainly buying it less."

Commenting on how he envisages cattle supply numbers to materialise into the end of the year, Nolan said that there has been "a bit of an increase on cattle numbers" into autumn.

Despite this, he added: "Based on the figures that Bord Bia has out there, the supply situation - or lack of it - suggest that there will not be a big flush of cattle this autumn."

"We are picking up from our suppliers there is quite a number of people feeding cattle stronger than they might necessarily would have done at this time of the year because they see where prices are - at the high level they are at currently."

He noted that this trend may prolong the supply base but it will be "more based on forward feeding than actual numbers".

Agriland asked Nolan if there is any reason for the current high farmer confidence in the beef trade to change into the end of the year or into 2026.

He said: "No, not into the start of 2026 certainly. We all know the price of replacement store cattle has aligned itself to the current market price and that's only to be expected.

"Into early 2026, based on all the figures that are available, I think there is room for optimism there."