The return of cooler, wetter weather conditions has brought the prospect of improved maize and soyabean crop conditions in the United States.
Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) senior cereals and oilseeds analysts have confirmed that improved US crop conditions will bring downward pressure on market prices.
The next crop condition update from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will be published next Monday, August 14. It is expected to contain a series of actual yield projections for both soyabean and maize.
Meanwhile, the situation in the Black Sea region remains very volatile.
This is a direct consequence of Russia and Ukraine failing to agree a continuation of the Black Sea Grain initiative.
The past week has seen attacks by Russia on ports along the Danube river with Ukraine using naval drones to attack Russian shipping.
AHDB’s Anthony Speight commented:
“The Russian cereal harvest is now underway. Total grain output in the country for 2023 is estimated to come in at 137Mt, with wheat alone accounting for 88Mt, according to IKAR.
“Russia is very active on international markets at the present time. Recent days have seen Egypt agreeing to purchase 235Kt of Russian wheat.”
Meanwhile, the 2023 grain harvest in Ukraine is continuing apace. The latest crop forecasts from Ukraine’s traders’ association relate a projected increase from the July figures across the following grains and oilseeds: Wheat; barley; maize; rapeseed; and sunflower.
Ukraine’s wheat output figure for 2023 is now projected to come in at 20.2Mt. The equivalent figures for barley, maize, rapeseed and sunflower are 5.2, 26.9, 3.9 and 13.9Mt respectively.
Back in 2021, the last year of unaffected farming in Ukraine, the actual crop output figures were as follows: Wheat – 33.0Mt; barley – 10.1Mt; maize – 37.6Mt; rapeseed – 2.9Mt; and sunflower – 16.9Mt.
AHDB is reporting that the UK cereal and oilseed harvest is starting to pick up.
Up to now, it has been a case of dodging the showers with growers making significant inroads, where winter barley, oilseed rape and oats are concerned.
Momentum is set to increase further with the prospect of some continuous drying days in the offing. This should give farmers an opportunity to start combining winter wheat and spring barley crops.
Where recommended list winter barley harvest results are concerned, the latest figures from AHDB confirm that 2023 yields have held up well.
This is somewhat in contrast to the situation in Ireland, where barley yields are down, year-on-year.