In terms of planning for Harvest 2023, the stakes will be much higher for tillage farmers next year as input costs, mainly driven by fertiliser, are expected to increase substantially.
Growers carrying higher costs are highly exposed and are financially vulnerable if grain markets fall significantly below their current level.
So, reducing risk is critical for 2023, according to Teagasc. Growing crops for high-value markets and crops that suit the soil type on farm makes sense.
Planning for Harvest 2023
One of the key ways to reduce risk on tillage farms is to have a spread of crops. Make cropping decisions based on long-term yield averages rather than reacting to the previous harvest.
While winter barley disappointed this year, there have been many years when it was harvested and straw baled before bad weather hit and spring crops turned into a salvage operation, Teagasc explained recently.
It is always tempting to avail of good weather in September to plant winter cereals but early planting carries risks.
Planting winter wheat and barley early (in mid- to late September – later further south) generally ensures good seedbeds and favourable temperatures during germination, leading to higher establishment rates.
Disease threat
However, there is an increased threat from take-all, foliar diseases, lodging, grass weeds and aphids (barley yellow dwarf virus).
Early-sown crops are at the highest risk from BYDV and yield reductions of 3.7t/ha have been recorded in Teagasc winter barley experiments.
Risk increases when early sowing is combined with coastal location and followed by a mild autumn/winter, as the aphid migration period and overwintering risk both increase.
The bottom line is this – planting cereals in October significantly reduces the risk of BYDV over September planting.
Where the control of grass weeds is concerned, avoiding the key germination period is a key integrated pest management (IPM) technique.
For sterile brome and blackgrass, September is the key period in this context. The potential for challenges to arise tapers off as sowing moves into October.
Winter barley should be avoided, as there are no reliable chemical control options. Delayed sowing also allows the use of stale seed beds, which are an effective IPM measure to reduce the weed seed bank.
Ideally, the first flush of brome/blackgrass should have appeared in the field before sowing.
Growers should plan to sow heavier land with low grass weed pressure and lower BYDV and take-all sites first, leaving more vulnerable land until later.
Spreading risk through a diversity of crops and a good rotation are key elements for a profitable tillage enterprise.