It is turning out that the next fortnight will be crucially important in determining the fortunes of Irish tillage in 2024.
This was one of the key themes discussed in detail at the 2024 Teagasc National Tillage Conference held in Co. Kilkenny.
If the weather and ground conditions improve, then farmers have some hope of reversing the disaster that engulfed them last back-end.
However, if the rain continues, then all bets are off as to just how bad the harvest of 2024 could turn out to be.
Tillage conference
According to the Teagasc spring planting survey, 62% of the ground ear-marked for winter cereal planting last autumn was actually drilled.
But this over-arching statistic hardly tells the real story. Many of the crops that were planted out prior to Christmas look patchy at best.
For those farmers with land that was not planted out at all last autumn, drilling winter wheat up to the middle of February is the ‘great white hope’.
There is plenty of seed in the country at the present time. Research carried out by Teagasc some years ago confirmed that winter wheat crops planted up to the middle of this month can deliver more than acceptable yields.
However, the production of these crops drops off significantly beyond this point.
According to the Teagasc tillage specialists attending the conference, drilling winter barley is no longer an economic option at this time of the year.
Drilling significant acreages of winter wheat over the next week or so will also take the pressure off spring barley stocks, which we now know will not meet the demand that could be created if February proves to be a wash-out.
Two other trends are apparent from the Teagasc survey.
Firstly, growers who resorted to plough-based establishment systems last autumn secured relatively higher planting rates.
And, secondly, the north-east and south-east were proportionally hardest hit by poor weather throughout the autumn 2023 planting season.
For farmers tackling ground that was not planted-out at all last autumn, the decision-making processes required over the coming weeks are very black and white in nature. It is simply a case of getting out onto ground as soon as conditions permit.
Managing crops
However, complications kick-in when it comes to deciding on how best to manage crops that got off to a very poor start last autumn.
A number of views were expressed at the tillage conference, where these matters are concerned.
One absolute ‘no-no’ it would seem, is planting-out a spring crop into the bare patches that have been created in autumn-sown cereals.
The option of planting-out a break crop in bare patches within fields was also discussed, as was the possibility of simple leaving these patches fallow.
For the purposes of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), fallow is regarded as a crop option. But it will be up to Department of Agriculture officials to determine how this will be interpreted under Irish conditions.
Concerns were also expressed by delegates attending the tillage conference regarding the implementation of the two- and three-crop rules by the Department of Agriculture in 2024.
It is now evident that many growers will not be able to meet these criteria over the coming months.
Given this reality, a degree of flexibility on the part of department officials will be expected.