Global warming is on track to reach 1.5°above pre-industrial averages in the early 2030s, according to a new study.

Scientists in the US warned that this will occur regardless of how much greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rise or fall in the coming decade.

The study using artificial intelligence (AI), undertaken by Stanford University and Colorado State University, has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal.

If emissions remain high over the next few decades, the research model predicts a 50% chance that the Earth will become 2° hotter on average compared to pre-industrial times by the middle of this century.

The study added that there is more than an 80% chance of reaching that threshold by 2060.

UN July warmest

The world is 1.1° hotter on average than it was before fossil fuel combustion took off in the 1800s.

The litany of impacts from that warming includes more frequent wildfires, more extreme rainfall and flooding, and longer, more intense heat waves.

The scientists said that because these impacts are already emerging, every fraction of a degree of global warming is predicted to intensify the consequences for people and ecosystems.

Study

The new “time to threshold” estimate results from an analysis that employs AI to predict climate change using recent temperature observations from around the world.

“Using an entirely new approach that relies on the current state of the climate system to make predictions about the future, we confirm that the world is on the cusp of crossing the 1.5° threshold,” Noah Diffenbaugh, Stanford University climate scientist, said.

“Our AI model is quite convinced that there has already been enough warming that 2° is likely to be exceeded if reaching net-zero emissions takes another half century.”

Diffenbaugh said that this finding may be controversial because other assessments, including the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have concluded that the 2° mark is unlikely to be reached if emissions decline to net zero before 2080.

Global Warming

Diffenbaugh said he was surprised to find the AI predicted the world would still be very likely to reach the 2° threshold even in a scenario where emissions rapidly decline to net zero by 2076.

The AI predicted a 50% chance of reaching 2° by 2054 in this scenario, with a roughly 66% chance of crossing the threshold between 2044 and 2065.

“Those net-zero pledges are often framed around achieving the Paris Agreement 1.5° goal. Our results suggest that those ambitious pledges might be needed to avoid 2°.”

Diffenbaugh said that remains possible “to bend the odds away from more extreme climate change” by quickly reducing the amount of GHGs being added to the atmosphere.

In the years since the Paris climate pact, many nations have pledged to reach net-zero emissions more quickly than is reflected in the low-emissions scenario used in the new study.

Many countries have net-zero goals between 2050 and 2070, including China, the European Union, India, and the US.