Adverse weather conditions since the start of the 2021–2022 season have led to a poor yield outlook for winter crops in central and western Ukraine.

That’s according to the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre JRC MARS Bulletin – Global outlook – Crop monitoring European neighbourhood – Ukraine.

Fair yields are expected in the east of the country. At country level, the yield forecast is below the historical trend and well below last year’s record level.

After a difficult autumn, winter crops were further affected by colder-than-usual temperatures during spring, which, in central and western Ukraine, were combined with a persistent rainfall deficit.

The JRC regional forecasts show a below-average yield outlook for winter crops in central and western oblasts, whereas fair yields are expected in the eastern half of the country.

Image: Joint Research Centre

Currently above-average temperatures are expected, and depending on their magnitude – these could further reduce the yield potential, according to the research.

Yield output for winter crops

In terms of production, this translates to a forecast of 26.88Mt of wheat, 6.66Mt of barley, and 3.75Mt of rapeseed.

About 22% of the forecast soft wheat production, 19% of the forecast winter barley, and 13% of the forecast rapeseed production is in areas that are currently subject to hostilities due to Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Hostilities have also led to a sharp decrease in the area sown to spring and summer crops, which will lead to a lower production of spring barley, grain maize, sunflowers and soybeans.

This issue of the JRC Bulletin contains yield and production forecast at oblast level, and an appendix on an analysis using Copernicus Sentinel data to estimate crop area and crop phenology.