It’s all good. The significance of Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Charlie McConalogue projecting a positive outlook for farmgate prices cannot be underestimated.
Politicians, by their very nature, are extremely conservative people, when it comes to them predicting the future – in any context.
So the fact that Charlie McConalogue chose Agriland earlier this week to deliver an extremely positive perspective on future farmgate returns is worth commenting on.
Incomes from agriculture
The minister also went on to point out that market returns play a vitally important role in determining farm incomes. In my opinion, this is equally significant.
The minister must know full well that any commentary regarding future farm incomes could come back to haunt him.
So given all of this, one might be left to conclude that Irish agriculture could well be looking towards a period of increasing fortunes.
Optimistic prospects
For the record, I wholly agree with the minister’s perspectives. 18 months ago all the ‘so called’ experts were predicting that a combination of Brexit and Covid-19 would deal Irish agriculture a mighty blow.
As it turned out, Covid-19 gave people an opportunity to spend more time thinking about the food that they eat.
There is also strong evidence to show that members of the public are now much more interested in the quality and traceability of the food that they eat.
As McConalogue also pointed out, the fact that the UK and the EU sorted out a free trade deal (FTA) took the sting out of Brexit.
But I would also argue that the Brexit process, and the subsequent steps taken by London to support agriculture in England and Wales, have further exposed Britain’s extremely low food self-sufficiency levels.
Moreover, the fact that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is keen to sort out FTAs with so many other countries around the world, is testimony to the lack of significance he places on the future role that can be played by British agriculture in delivering for consumers on its own doorstep.
Exports to Britain
Potentially, all of this is good news for Irish farming and food. The reality is that food imported from Ireland is not seen as a threat by British consumers.
At that some stage in the not too distant future British farmers and all the accompanying stakeholder organisations will make it very clear to Westminster that their livelihoods must be protected.
The debate that follows will centre on the production and welfare standards achieved by farmers in countries like Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United States, relative to those expected of producers in the UK.
It is vitally important for Irish agriculture to remain on the right side of these arguments.
Obstacles for Irish agriculture
Potential banana skins that lie in the way of us achieving this are the perceived welfare standards associated with Ireland’s reliance of live cattle exports, and the evolving need to deliver on life-time farm quality assurance (QA) standards, where beef and lamb are concerned, when it comes to dealing with the UK supermarkets.
It is now evident that the amount of direct support going into British farmers’ bank accounts is going to fall off a cliff over the coming five years.
The only way that such a trend can be counter balanced, is for the UK food retail sector to deliver better producer prices.
They say that a rising tide floats all boats. And, in this context, the prospects of Irish food companies doing business in Britain over the coming years could well be buoyed significantly.
Increased food demand
The other ‘mega’ factor that will impact on the future prospects of Irish farmers is the continuing growth in the world’s population.
Minister McConalogue referenced this point strongly during a sit-down interview with Agriland this week.
And he is right. All of these additional people need to be fed. And courtesy of the fast-growing middle classes in countries like China, people will have the money to pay realistic prices for the food that they need.
Irish agriculture is well capable of playing a significant role in meeting this demand.
Climate targets
I also buy-in to the belief that the farming industry in Ireland can meet its climate action commitments without cutting its production capacity at all.
The scope for Irish farmers to improve the efficiency of their businesses is immense. Becoming more efficient will slash greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across Irish agriculture as a whole.
So, surely, it’s a case of the industry getting on with the job in hand.
Mention of climate change brings with it the growing recognition that Irish agriculture is already playing a critically important role in helping the country meet its overall commitments in this regard.
Carbon sequestration is the new ‘buzz’ terms that we are all throwing around with ‘total abandon’.
But what does it actually mean and how will it impact on the daily lives of Irish farmers?
In my opinion, it is shaping up to represent a new and additional income stream for local agriculture.
We know that land is an immense carbon store, which is added to courtesy of the management practices carried out by farms on an annual basis.
Part of the problem right now is that we don’t know how much actual carbon is being actively sequestered by Irish agriculture on an annual basis. Teagasc has been tasked with the challenge of finding all of this out.
However, once we do get sense of how much sequestration is taking place, these figures can be converted into carbon credits, which can be then traded locally and internationally.
Charlie McConalogue has already signalled that he sees no reason why farmers cannot optimise the value of the carbon that they are actually sequestering.
So could carbon become a form of ‘black gold’ for Irish agriculture? We won’t have long to find out?
In any event, I believe that farmers throughout Ireland could well be looking towards a very bright and sustainable future, provided our policymakers and those supporting the industry get their act together.