The past three months have seen beef prices stay relatively steady, with factory steer (bullock) quotes, generally speaking, deviating by about 5c/kg above and below €5.20/kg since late-January – with regular cattle finishers securing extra in some cases.
In the same three-month period of last year, bullock prices increased by 75c/kg, rising from €4.25/kg on the grid in late-January to €5.00/kg in early May (generally speaking).
In the final three months of last year, prices bottomed out at €4.50/kg in late-October before surging back to €5.00/kg in the final days of December, a 50c/kg rise in just over two months.
2022 will be remembered in the beef trade for its substantial price volatility but the first third of 2023 has seen price a lot more stable, which can be welcomed in some ways.
Many farmers had anticipated beef price to be rising exponentially again this year, however that has not been the case to date.
In Ireland, beef price generally tends to peak in the later part of the second quarter of the year, and while processors are universally claiming price has already peaked for this year, a cattle supply outlook would suggest differently.
Supplies of finished cattle are projected to fall across Europe this year. The prolonged rainfall across Ireland has resulted in a very difficult start to the 2023 grazing season, which will have an impact on grass-finished cattle supplies into the opening weeks of June.
Wet and cold weather has subdued beef cattle performance on grass and will likely delay their arrival at factory lairages this year.
Weekly beef kills in Ireland are running well below last year with 30,500 fewer cattle slaughtered in the first four months of this year compared to the same time period of last year.
Cattle supply in Ireland has been projected to fall by 60,000 head this year, primarily in the first half of the year. Most processors are only operating at about 80% capacity or less but it appears this is due to supply rather than demand.
Assuming weekly kills fall further (which has been projected), competition for finished cattle supplies between factories could increase significantly and a substantial uplift in beef prices cannot be entirely ruled out in the coming eight weeks.