Grain price: This month’s USDA supply and demand estimates are out

Grain markets showed no major moves last week. LIFFE wheat for November dropped €1.35/t from the beginning to the end of the week, while MATIF wheat for December showed a rise of €1.75/t over the same period.

Supply and demand estimates

The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) released its supply and demand estimates last week.

In its report, the USDA reduced its wheat supply estimates for 2018/2019. This was mostly based on the lower production from Australia and Russia.

Australia’s production is decreased by 1.5 million tonnes to 18.5 million tonnes; making it Australia’s smallest harvest since 2007/2008. The reduction in the Australian wheat harvest is likely to affect global trade, as Australian exports are estimated to decrease by 1 million tonnes to 13 million tonnes.

The USDA estimates Russia’s wheat production to be down by 1 million tonnes to 70 million tonnes.

Global ending stocks for wheat have been reduced by 1.1 million tonnes to 260.2 million tonnes – a 5% decrease on last year’s record.

The USDA estimates corn stocks in the US at a record high. Reduced production is more than compensated by an increase in beginning stocks. In fact, corn supplies are at the highest the country has ever seen.

The USDA estimates global course grain production to be down by 1,343.4 million tonnes. However, consumption is down and stocks are high. As a result, corn remains a competitive product.

CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) corn for December (main session corn) was trading at 373.75c/bu on Friday, October 12.

LIFFE

The November price opened last week, down slightly from the week previous at £179.05/t (€203.37/t). It then decreased until Thursday, when it hit £177.25/t (€201.32/t), but it rose to £177.70/t (€201.83/t) on Friday.

LIFFE wheat price for November:
  • Monday, October 8 – £179.05/t (€203.37/t);
  • Tuesday, October 9 – £178.80/t (€203.08/t);
  • Wednesday, October 10 – £176.85/t (€200.87/t);
  • Thursday, October 11 – £177.25/t (€201.32/t);
  • Friday, October 12 – £177.70/t (€201.83/t).

MATIF

The December MATIF price worked in the opposite direction, starting the week at €203/t. It dropped slightly in the middle of the week to €202.75/t and finished off the week on a positive at €204.75/t.

MATIF wheat price for December:
  • Monday, October 8 – €203/t;
  • Tuesday, October 9 – €203.50/t;
  • Wednesday, October 10 – €202.75/t;
  • Thursday, October 11 – €203.50/t;
  • Friday, October 12 – €204.75.

CBOT

CBOT wheat fluctuated throughout the week, but not in any high range of prices. It started the week at 514c/bu (€162.94/t) on Monday (October 8) and it had landed on 517.25c/bu (€189.96) by Friday.

CBOT wheat price for December:

Monday, October 8 – 514c/bu (€162.94/t);
Tuesday, October 9 – 515c/bu (€163.26/t);
Wednesday, October 10 – 510.50c/bu (€161.99/t);
Thursday, October 11 – 508c/bu (€161.04/t);
Friday, October 12 – 517.25c/bu (€163.89/t).