Grain price: Falls and climbs continue in unpredictable market

Grain price is being thrown in different directions by a lot of different factors these days.

Having dropped as far as £177.20/t (€197.97/t) on Tuesday (August 29), LIFFE wheat recovered somewhat on Wednesday, climbing back to £182.15/t (€203.50/t); but this was short lived.

Activity around the globe

On the world stage this week global maize production was estimated to increase by 12 million tonnes from the July estimate of the International Grains Council. However, consumption of the product is also up and as a result supply is estimated to be lowered – by about 4%.

US corn condition is reported to be excellent in 20% of the crops, while 48% of crops are in good condition.

Also in the US the spring wheat harvest was 77% complete by August 26 – these figures take account of six states which produce 99% of the country’s spring wheat.

Meanwhile, a possibility of Russia capping exports at 30 million tonnes put some fear in the market this week and may have caused the temporary spike in prices on Wednesday. The cap on exports is thought to be due to a forecast reduction of Russian wheat production in 2018/2019.

LIFFE

Last Friday (August 24) saw the November price for LIFFE wheat hit £179.65/t (€200.71/t). This price continued to stumble after the bank holiday weekend in the UK when it hit £177.20/t  (€197.97/t)on Tuesday (August 28).

An increase of almost £5/t on Wednesday (August 29) gave sellers hope as the price closed at £182.15/t (€203.50/t).

By Thursday (August 30) this price had dropped back to £180.25/t (€201.38/t).

MATIF

The MATIF dropped until a temporary increase midweek. Having hit €202.75/t on Friday (August 24) the December price fell further to €199/t on Monday (August 27) and €198.25/t on Tuesday (August 28).

The price improved on Wednesday (August 29) when it closed at €203.25/t.

At close of play on Thursday (August 30) the December price shut at €201.75/t and by Friday afternoon  the December MATIF price stood at at €204.25/t.

CBOT

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat for September took a steep drop at the beginning of this week. It went from 514c/bu (€162.32/t) last Friday (August 24) to 499c/bu (€157.58/t) on Monday.

It recovered on Wednesday (August 29) to go above last Friday’s price when it reached 515.25c/bu (€162.63/t). However, it decreased once again on Thursday (August 30), closing at 508c/bu (€160.43/t). On Friday morning CBOT wheat for September was trading at 518c/bu (€163.58/t).

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