A public consultation has been launched on a draft report that outlines the strategic environmental, economic, geopolitical, social and technological risks facing Ireland.
The draft National Risk Assessment – Overview of Strategic Risks 2021/2022 was published by the government in recent days.
The assessment is an exercise that identifies significant risks facing the country and feeds into more detailed risk management processes by individual departments and agencies.
The main environmental risks for Ireland have been identified as: climate change; biodiversity loss; extreme weather events and other natural disasters; pandemics; antimicrobial resistance; and food safety.
Meanwhile, the main economic risks include: labour shortages and capacity constraints; changes to international trading relationships; and disruption to secure and sustainable energy supply.
Importance of risk management
Speaking on the launch, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said that the past two years have “very clearly shown the importance of risk management and preparedness”.
“This is never more that case than with the reality of a major risk coming to pass in the form of Covid-19 – which continues to have major and far-reaching impacts not least on people’s lives and livelihoods,” the Taoiseach said.
“As we begin to recover, it is important that we think about how the pandemic is impacting new and existing risks and the lessons that we are continuously learning.
“We have to maintain focus on the range of other social, economic and environmental risks that can arise – and make sure our systems have the resilience and adaptability needed to deal with them.
“The draft assessment is an opportunity for everyone to contribute to this discussion and to make sure that we are considering the right issues.”
Risks ‘exacerbated’ by pandemic
An assessment of this type was last published in 2019 and since that time, the government recognises that the “environment has changed dramatically with a number of major risks, most notably the pandemic, coming to pass”.
Brexit and the cyberattack on Ireland’s health services are two major risks that have materialised.
This draft includes some new risks, including “digital exclusion, economic scarring and the sustainability of the public finances, as well as others that have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic”.
“For example, geopolitically, Covid-19 has shown up the fragility of global interconnectedness and made many countries and trading blocs think about their dependence on and vulnerability to the external supply of vital resources and services.
“There is a risk that an open economy like Ireland’s would suffer if such changes resulted in greater restrictions or barriers to trade.
“Environmentally, the challenge of climate change grows more urgent with its associated risks of biodiversity loss and extreme weather events.
“And while Covid-19 has demonstrated the risk of pandemics, the possible harms arising from food safety and antimicrobial resistance are others in this category.”
Environmental risks
The assessment determines that the cost of climate inaction “exceeds the cost of action and this cost differential will rise steeply with time”.
“It will be critical to take action on climate change, as set out in the National Development Plan and the Climate Action Plan to avoid threats to human health, economic development, property, infrastructure and ecosystems, reputational damage, as well as risks to food, water and energy security and population displacement/mass migration.
“There are also potential costs to the exchequer if we fail to achieve compliance with our EU GHG emissions and renewable energy targets.
“While being mindful of just transition and the need to protect the vulnerable in our society from potential impacts of transition, there remains an economic risk if Ireland fails to price the cost of carbon into our economic model.
“We need to plan our approach towards carbon neutrality for the agricultural sector in a manner that recognises the essential economic and social role of the sector and must invest in innovative economic opportunities, for example in the bioeconomy.”
The report also raises a risk in relation to dealing with antimicrobial resistance (AMR): that “governments and health systems are necessarily focused on the pandemic and this may constrain the required focus on AMR”.
The report will be finalised on foot of submissions received through this process, and will be published later in the year.
The draft report and survey are available online. The public consultation will be open until Wednesday, September 8, 2021.