Above-average temperatures this summer and in the future will impact farmers in terms of stocking, fodder, fertiliser use, and pest control, according to Teagasc.
Copernicus, the earth observation component of the EU’s space programme, has forecasted that Ireland’s summer will have “above average” temperatures, with the likelihood of these temperatures increasing as the season progresses.
The mean temperatures are forecast to be between 0.5-1°C above average countrywide.
The sea surface temperatures around the Irish coasts and over the Atlantic to the southwest and south of Ireland are very likely to continue above average over the three-month period.
Met Éireann does not usually go beyond the following three months in seasonal forecasts, due to accuracy decreasing, however it told Agriland that it looks like the above-average temperatures predicted will continue into the beginning of autumn.
Rising temperatures
This comes after the World Meteorolgical Organisation (WMO) announced that there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record.
“Weather is the most important component affecting Irish farm production,” sustainablity advisor at Teagasc, Deirdre Glynn said.
“It is projected that we will see increased occurrences of heat waves; this will amplify the occurrence of heat stress for both plants and animals.
“Rising temperatures will impact on crop growth stages and the crop growing seasons,” Glynn said.
“Drought can lead to reduced grass growth, fodder and water shortages. Predicted shifts in climate, temperature and precipitation may result in the increased occurrence of plant diseases.”
Vincent O’Connor, soil and environment advisor at Teagasc said that it is difficult to predict what temperatures this summer will actually be yet, but that “stocking rate is going to be an issue for a lot of people” if temperatures continue to soar.
“There’s only one way of reducing the pressure, by reducing stock numbers, whether that’s going to be an option for people or not, I don’t know,” O’Connor said.
He added that farming “could probably survive the grazing”, but it may mean grazing on silage land that needs to be preserved for the winter, leading to farmers having to purchase more fodder.
Looking ahead to winter, Glynn said that the wetter months are proving “problematic”.
“Farmers face difficulties in accessing land with heavy machinery having implications for the timing of planting, fertiliser application and harvesting,” Glynn said.
Advice and adaptations
Agriculture accounts for 67.6% of the national land cover in Ireland, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
“Climate change poses a real and actual challenge for Irish agriculture.
“As we heat up, extremes occur, heavy rains, floods, heatwaves, killer storms, and droughts,” Glynn told Agriland.
Glynn provided a list of adaptations for farmers to follow as climate impacts continue:
- Farmers will have to adapt the timing of farm operations, planting or sowing dates and treatments;
- It is essential for farmers to fodder budget;
- Research and choose crop and varieties better adapted to growing seasons;
- Talk to your advisor about genomics to benefit livestock production;
- Increase nitrogen use efficiency on farms, use protected urea and have a fertiliser plan in place. Manage organic and inorganic fertilisers efficiently with the environment in mind;
- Using Low Emission Slurry Spreading (LESS) technologies;
- Look after your soil health and water health on farms;
- Planting forestry, woodlands and hedgerows.
O’Connor advised farmers to grow multi-species sward where possible.
The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) has offered advice to farmers on the care of animals during hot weather.
It advised that cattle be brought inside during very hot periods; try to ensure pigs have some sort of artificial or natural wallows available so that they can lose heat through evaporation; and monitor newly shorn sheep closely, as they don’t have a fleece to act as insulation against heat.