Global meat production is set to increase in 2023 when compared to last year’s figures, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).
The FAO has released its biannual report on global food markets, which estimates that the global food bill will rise to $1.98 trillion in 2023, an increase of 1.5% on last year.
This will be a new record, but the global food bill is expected to rise slowly due to escalating world prices reducing the demand for food from countries.
Meat
Global meat production in 2023 is forecast to increase marginally to 363.9 million tonnes carcass weight equivalent, up from 362.6 million tonnes last year.
This increase is driven by an anticipated rise in global poultry meat production, due to increased demand and its appeal as an “affordable” meat, the FAO said.
Global sheepmeat production is also expected to increase in Asia and Oceania, according to the FAO report.
Expected to fall is the global pigmeat production following to a drop in European output due to the impact of African Swine Fever, weaker producer margins and lower domestic demand.
Global bovine meat production is forecast to fall marginally due to high feed costs, forage shortages and lower carcass weight in several leading producing regions.
The report estimates that world trade in meat and meat products is forecast to reach 42 million tonnes carcass weight equivalent in 2023, only slightly above the 2022 level.
Much of the increased demand is likely to be met by Brazil and Australia due to their high availability of exportable supplies, disease-free status and competitive prices, the FAO said.
Since reaching an all-time high in June 2022, the FAO said: “International meat prices have trended downward in the second half of last year, reflecting increased exportable availabilities in some leading exporting countries”.
Milk
World milk production in 2023 is forecast to reach 944 million tonnes, an increase of 0.9% on 2022 levels, according to the FAO report.
Despite the expected increase, 2023 would be the second consecutive year of slow growth due to “foreseen significant year-on-year volume reductions in milk output in South America, Africa, Europe and Oceania”.
These reductions, the FAO said, are due to “lower producer margins, the potential impact of extreme weather events and other challenging production conditions, especially labour shortages”.
These reductions are likely to counter the limited expansions expected in Asia, North America, Central America and the Caribbean.
Rising milk yields and cattle numbers in India and Pakistan, together with high output in large-scale dairy farms in China, are likely to drive Asia’s milk-output expansion, the FAO said.
Increasing yields and dairy cow numbers could lift milk output in North America, despite lower milk producer margins and the potential increase in cattle slaughter due to “attractive premiums for slaughter-ready cows”, the report states.
Cereals
The FAO expects a 1% increase in global cereal production in 2023, reaching over 2.8 billion tonnes. Offsetting these increases partially are wheat and barley outputs, which are predicted to fall below their 2022 levels.
The total amount of wheat expected to be produced in 2023 is 777 million tonnes, a 3% decrease on last year.
Higher feed use, largely of maize, is the dominant driver behind the expected increase, followed by growth in food consumption, especially of wheat and rice.
Strong feed demand, largely for maize, in Brazil, China, and the US is the main driver behind the expected 2.6% increase in total feed use of coarse grains.