The recovery of finished pig prices in the EU has lost momentum as lingering disease risks and rising production weigh on the pork market.

This was according to an update by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) this week, which said that despite European finished pig prices generally strengthening in recent weeks, the pace of the recovery appears to have slowed. 

"Tighter short-term supply following the summer heatwaves appears to have supported the recovery, as high temperatures reduce feed intake and growth rates," AHDB analyst Adam Chowdry said.

"This has been most apparent in Germany and Spain. The return to normal trade after the holiday period has reportedly also supported demand.

"Prices in most major producing countries have increased over the past month, although they remain below year-earlier levels in all but France."

Price strength reportedly reflects tighter domestic supply, potentially linked to heat-related production constraints, Chowdry said.

Slight production increase

EU pigmeat production totalled 11.1 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, an increase of 1.8% (199,600 tonnes) year-on-year.

Much of the growth was driven by production in Spain, with output up 3% (84,900 tonnes) year-on-year.

Denmark recorded a 9% (61,700 tonnes) rise and Poland a 3% (33,100 tonnes) increase.

Meanwhile, production was steadier in Germany, Belgium and France.

The Netherlands saw the largest reduction among the major producers, with output down 7% (50,700 tonnes) year-on-year.

Chowdry explained: "Higher production across the bloc reflected gains in both throughput and carcass weights, with EU clean pig slaughter up 2% year-on-year to 113.9 million head, and average carcass weights up 0.3% (0.28kg) to 97.5kg".

Marginal export decline

During the first half of 2026, EU pigmeat exports fell by 1.2% year-on-year, totalling 1.98 million tonnes of fresh, frozen and processed products, including offal.

"China remained the largest destination overall, though shipments declined 19.5% year-on-year, reflecting anti-dumping measures, domestic oversupply, weaker consumer demand, and a continued push towards self-sufficiency," Chowdry said.

"The UK was the second-largest destination, with volumes down 6% (22,900 tonnes) year-on-year.

Chowdry said that elsewhere in Asia, growth was strong.

"Shipments to South Korea rose 50% to 193,300 tonnes, and those to Vietnam 35% to 85,400 tonnes," he said.

"The pattern underlines the value of a diversified export base as Chinese demand softens."

Imports edge higher

EU pigmeat imports reached 70,300 tonnes in the first half of 2026, up 7% year-on-year, according to Eurostat.

The UK remained the largest individual supplier at 52,300 tonnes, up 2% (1,000 tonnes).

"By product, fresh and frozen pork recorded the strongest growth at 19%, and sausages rose 3%, while offal, bacon and processed pigmeat declined 5%, 14% and 3% respectively," Chowdry said.

Looking ahead

The AHDB analyst said that African swine fever remains a "significant risk" to production and trade.

"Cases in domestic pigs in Hungary have continued to spread geographically, with recent outbreaks reported in areas further from previous affected regions," Chowdry added.

"EU exporters also continue to face challenges in the Chinese market following the anti-dumping duties.

"This could make it more difficult for European pork to compete in China, particularly against lower cost suppliers such as Brazil.

"The loss of access to China for some volumes could also increase competition between EU producers in other export markets."

Chowdry said strong supplies, subdued demand, and low prices are likely to continue weighing on the market.

"Any significant reduction in production is unlikely to feed through quickly, meaning market conditions could remain challenging into 2027," he said.