The Bord Bia Export Performance and Prospects Report 2022/2023 has outlined that the EU Commission has forecast the size of the EU beef herd to decline further in 2023.
The report outlines that notable reductions in the beef herd are likely across several markets, including France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands.
The report also notes that UK beef supplies however, are expected to show “a small increase” in 2023 compared to 2022 levels.
The outlook for beef export markets “remains uncertain for 2023”, according to the report.
It notes that both global and EU beef supplies look set to remain “well balanced”, and outlined that the critical factor in determining price developments will be the impact of cost-of-living factors and consumer sentiment on beef-purchasing behavior.
In global terms, beef supplies are forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to decrease marginally, largely driven by a decline in the US herd resulting from recent drought conditions.
In terms of import demand, the USDA expects growth from Asian markets likeJapan and South Korea, while the Chinese economic situation and growing domestic herd is likely to result in reduced demand from China in 2023.
This may result in a stronger focus on the European Union from large global exporters such as the Mercosur countries and Australia.
The cost-of-living crisis is expected to continue to impact on beef demand in the UK and the EU, as the EU Commission forecasts a 1.5% decline in beef consumption.
The report notes that in this environment, it will be more important than ever for Irish beef to be positioned as a reliable, innovative supplier of high-quality beef with strong sustainability credentials.