Beef exports from Brazil posted a record performance in the first half (H1) of 2026 in terms of both volume and value.

This was driven mainly by the 'front-loading' of beef into China and demand from the US that remained strong.

However, according to the latest Brazil Agribusiness Quarterly from RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness, the outlook for Brazil's beef exports for the third quarter (Q3) calls for greater caution.

In July, shipments totalled around 258,000t, down 17% month-on-month and year-on-year, mainly reflecting a 48% decline in volumes destined for China.

China

Cumulative shipments to China are nearing 857,000t for the year, and there are rising expectations that the available quota of Brazil's beef exports to the country will be filled in the coming months.

China remains the largest destination for Brazilian beef, and the "key pillar" supporting its export business.

In 2025, China took in 48% of Brazil's export volume, equal to about 1.65 million tonnes and $8.8 billion.

According to RaboResearch, the impending quota limit for 2026 is likely to bring greater volatility to shipments and cattle prices in Brazil.

The growth in exports early in the year led to a rise in prices for Brazilian producers, which peaked in April, unlike the usual seasonal pattern which sees prices typically peak in quarter four (Q4).

As well as an expected slow down in exports to China, the ban on Brazilian beef exports to the EU, which commenced on September 3, is expected to remove 10,000t per month from exports.

Despite being a smaller market than China, the loss of the EU market will likely have a disproportionately higher impact on profitability for producers, as it is a higher-value market.

The US remains the second-largest market for Brazilian beef, with cumulative imports of nearly 234,000t so far this year, up 17% year-on-year.

Chile, Japan and South Korea are considered potential markets that could allow Brazil diversify its exports.

RaboResearch said that progress in negotiations for market access to Japan and South Korea could expand opportunities for higher value-added products in the coming months.

Producer prices

Domestically within Brazil, the weaker export outlook is already impacting producer prices.

The July average was close to the equivalent of €56.73 for every 15kg, or around €3.78/kg.

This is the second-lowest monthly level so far of 2026.

However, the risk of prices slipping lower is limited by the tight supply of finished cattle.

Lower feedlot placements, reduced availability of replacement cattle, and the retention of females for breeding are expected to limit slaughter supply over the coming months.

RaboResearch said that, despite a less favourable external environment, tight supply should continue to support fed cattle prices through year-end.