According to a recent report from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), beef prices are expected to remain “historically high” for 2023.
Tight beef supplies expected globally in 2023, predominantly due to reduced beef production in the northern hemisphere, is outlined as being the key reason for this.
The report from the UK-based entity, titled Irish Beef Outlook: 2023, notes that Ireland is the largest supplier of beef to the UK, with Irish product “continuing to be a mainstay in the UK market”.
Food price inflation was outlined as having the potential to limit UK shopper spending on beef. While this may be the case, the report noted that reduced beef supplies are expected from Irish, EU and global markets which should continue to support prices.
According to Bord Bia’s 2023 Irish beef sector outlook, 90% of the value of Irish beef exports go to the EU and UK marketplaces.
The UK accounted for 43% of the total value of Irish beef exports at €1.1 billion in 2022. According to the AHDB report, any change in production or trade in Ireland can impact domestic beef prices in the UK.
Bord Bia has forecast Irish factory cattle throughputs to fall by 3-4% or 50,000-60,000 head in 2023, mainly in the first half of the year.
Teagasc has forecast the average finished cattle prices in Ireland to rise by 4% year-on-year in 2023 despite downside pressure from inflation reducing disposable incomes and having negative implications for demand.
The chart below shows the price difference in beef price between Great Britain and Ireland:
The quantity of Irish fresh and frozen beef imported to the UK decreased by 3.6% in 2022, according to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). However, the value of Irish beef imports to the UK grew by 15% (to €1.1 billion) in 2022 due to inflation.
Growth in both value and quantity terms was also seen with Irish exports to some major European countries such as France, Germany, Italy, and Sweden, as demand for Irish beef increased in 2022 due to reduced European production.
Looking forward, the AHDB report outlined some of the key watchpoints for Irish beef market trends. Some of these are whether Irish beef processers will try to diversify their beef export markets by moving some product away from well-established supply chains, as wider global disruption in the beef market causes volatility and opportunity; and if the slight declines in EU production continue to hold a buoyant trade and offer more value for Irish beef product.