UK beef prices are unlikely to see significant growth in 2027 due to sluggish consumer demand and changing import trends.

This was according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board's (AHDB) latest UK beef market outlook.

It indicated that total beef imports for the year-to-date (fresh, frozen, processed and offal) was 177,800 tonnes (product weight).

"This was 2.4% higher than the same period in 2025, with growth in imports from Brazil, New Zealand and Australia offsetting declining volumes from Ireland and Poland".

These imports amounted to £1.29 billion, or 10.6% increase year-on-year.

Increased levels

It is expected that total beef import volumes for 2026 will see a 3% increase on 2025 levels, "with a strong annual uplift in Q1 counteracting small year-on-year declines in the remaining quarters", according to AHDB senior analyst for livestock, Becky Smith.

She explained that a wider price differential between Great Britain (GB) and Irish farmgate values, "coupled with forecasts for a more normal seasonal supply pattern in Irish kill volumes for the second half of this year, may encourage more Irish beef into the UK market".

Smith said Brazilian beef exports to the UK were expected to rise, due to the loss of EU market access for the remainder of 2026.

She added that, at the same time, it would remain crucial to monitor Australian and New Zealand imports, especially because free trade agreements grant them greater access to the UK market.

Looking to 2027

"Looking ahead to 2027, global beef supply is expected to remain tight as key suppliers in Australia, Brazil and the USA look to rebuild their herds," Smith said.

"This, combined with a lower domestic demand forecast may limit import volumes to the UK."

Exports

Exports in 2027 are likely to continue to be limited by domestic production, although consistent demand from the EU and the growth in new export destinations could support both volumes and value, the AHDB report said.

The UK exported 82,000 tonnes of fresh, frozen offal and processed beef, valued at £522 million, in the year-to-date (January to July), representing a 4% increase on 2025 levels.

According to Smith, the EU remained the key market, or making up 80% of all exports.

"Significant growth was seen in exports to Ireland, likely reflecting the closer prices at the start of the year."

Full-year growth in UK beef exports is expected to reach 3% year-on-year.

Smith explained that this was the result of "a very strong export trade in Q1 (+15% YoY), and then smaller annual falls in the remaining quarters of this year".

"Exports are likely to be somewhat limited by domestic production, with less product available to ship."

She added that the European Commission's forecast for "a notable increase in import demand", may offer opportunities for producers.

"Demand for beef remains strong globally but the higher price point of British product underscores the importance of targeting premium markets," Smith said.

Consumption

AHDB retail and consumer insight manager, Emma Wantling, reported that higher average prices in the past 52 weeks saw "retail beef spend grow +7.1% and out-of-home (OOH) spend grow +1.2%² year-on-year.

"These higher prices have led to a retail volume decline of -4.6% and an OOH volume decline of -2.9%.

She added that AHDB's revised forecast for total UK beef volumes in 2026 was -3% year-on-year, or a -8% decline compared to 2024.

"For 2027, we expect consumer confidence to remain muted. Rising food inflation and energy costs will add pressure to household incomes.

"Consumers are likely to make careful spending decisions, focusing on getting the best value for money," she said.

Retail demand

Wantling predicted that volume sales for beef mince would remain muted, with consumers turning to "more cost-effective solutions for family-friendly meals".

"Boredom from too many chicken meals may bring beef mince back into consideration as consumers turn to comfort food such as cottage pies and lasagne," she said.

However, consumers would be shopping around for the best deals, but promotions on steaks and roasting joints "will help drive volumes for key celebrations", according to her.

Out-of-home demand

It is expected that consumers will reserve dining-in for special occasions focussing on steaks and roasting joints.

"Fast food restaurants are likely to focus on smaller, cheaper beef burgers for cost-conscious consumers," Wantling said.

"Takeaways are forecasted to slowly decline following a post-covid boom.

"There may be a potential uplift in volumes through delivery apps for the Woman’s World Cup in the summer months," she concluded.