Annexed Crimea set to knock 6.5 -7.5m tonnes of Ukraine gross yield

According to the estimations of the Association ‘Ukrainian agribusiness club’ (UCAB), gross yield of grain and oil crops in the Ukraine in 2014/15 is forecast to 55-56 million tonnes. This excludes Crimea, which is 6.5 -7.5 million tonnes 11.9-12.1% less than previous year. Export is expected to reach 26-27 million tons  6.3-7.3 million tonnes (18,8-21,8%), down slightly expectations of 2013/14.

“One of the negative factors, which influence the forecast of future yield, is price increase for production resources due to devaluation of national currency. Considering, Ukrainian agriculture producers will be forced to revise production technology, which in turn could lead to decrease in primary crop yield”, the expert on agriculture markets of UCAB Igor Ostapchuk says.

Due to cold weather conditions, particularly, in most Ukrainian regions, corn yield could be worse than expected. According to UCAB forecast, wheat production in 2014/15  is expected at 21.2 – 22.2 million tonnes, barley – 6.8-7.3 million tonnes, corn – 24.5-25.5 million tonnes (excluding currently occupied territory of Crimea).

Assessment of forthcoming gross yield was conducted after allowing for harvest season of spring crops, quality of winter crops, agro-meteorological conditions, and other factors, which has remarkable influence on future harvest. Moreover, the forecast is complicated by temporal political situation as well as economic instability. Hence, one of the crucial issues is how to complete sowing campaign in Donetsk and Lughansk regions. Despite these, forecast of potential gross yield might be correlated on account of climate conditions and other significant factors.

 

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