The European Commissioner for Agriculture, Janusz Wojciechowski has said that exporting four million tonnes of grain per month from Ukraine is “possible”, even with the Black Sea closed.
Commissioner Wojciechowski said that Ukraine has 49 million tonnes of grain for export this year.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative came to an end last month, and the first vessel since the closure left the port of Odesa on Wednesday, August 16.
It moved along a “temporary corridor” established for civilian vessels to and from Black Sea ports.
According to analytical agency, the APK-Inform consultancy, Ukraine in the first half of August exported 820,000MT of grain via its ports on the Danube River, which is currently its main export route.
In addition, another 75,000t of grains and oilseeds were exported from Ukraine by road transport during this period.
The agency stated: “It should be noted the stable demand for dump trucks in the direction of Germany and Romania for the export of rapeseed, which led to the growth of rates week-on-week. In other directions, the demand is not too significant amid low trading activity.”
Ukraine trading figures
Forecasted figures for grain exports for the remainder of 2023, continuing into 2024 are much lower than other years, according to Commissioner Wojciechowski.
He outlined figures for the exports of cereals and oilseeds combined for 2021/2022, which totalled 63 million tonnes.
An estimation for 2022/2023 shows a drop in these figures to 61.1 million tonnes.
The forecast for 2023/2024 show a further drop to 49.1 million tonnes.
Commissioner Wojciechowski also provided figures for agri-food imports from the EU to Ukraine from May to June 2023, in tonnes:
- Beef: 0;
- Pork: 0;
- Poultry: 32,430;
- Eggs: 12,778;
- Wheat: 854,913;
- Barley: 49,019;
- Maize: 1,848,204;
- Milk, cream, yoghurts: 145;
- Butter: 76;
- Milk powder: 3,513;
- Honey: 8,551;
- Sugar: 95,426.
Commissioner Wojciechowski said the alternative option of exporting through the Baltic ports is “distant, expensive and unprofitable”.
He added that he is in support of “surcharges for transit to ports”.
Solidarity lanes
The European Commission confirmed that since the beginning of solidarity lanes (SL) in May 2022, Ukraine exported 72.8MT of grain, including 44.4MT through SL and 31.9MT through the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
The commission stated that the average export was 5.1MT/month.
It added that according to UA authorities, in July 2023 around 70% of grain was exported through the Danube corridor, with the remainder being transported via rail and road.