Prices for UK wheat futures and European wheat both rose last week following further attacks on shipping and ports in the Black Sea.

However, the Agricultural and Horticultural and Development Board (AHDB) highlighted that expectations of good crops in both markets limited the price rises.

UK wheat futures for November 2026 rose by £3/t (1.5%) for the week ending Friday, August 7.

European wheat also prices rose for the same seven day period, as the Russian-Ukraine conflict continues to restrict exports and push up shipping costs from the region.

Meanwhile, AKP-Inform estimates of the Ukrainian 2026 wheat crop have increased by 0.2Mt to 22.6Mt and barley crop by 0.9Mt to 6.3Mt.

However, where wheat is concerned, export forecasts have been reduced by 1.8Mt for wheat and 0.8Mt for barley due to the challenges of shipping from Black Sea ports.

According to AHDB, the conflict will remain a key driver in the weeks ahead.

European prices

Meanwhile, December 2026 Paris milling wheat futures gained 1.8% between July 31 and August 7.

November 2026 Paris maize futures gained 2.3% over the same period as crop forecasts slipped further due to the hot, dry weather, especially in France.

Significantly, the global food supply analyst, Expana, cut its forecast of the 2026 EU-27 maize crop by 4.6Mt from last month to 49.1Mt, now down 14% year-on-year.

In addition, Argus Media forecast the crop to come in 20% below last year's at 48.0Mt.

US crops

In the US, December 2026 Chicago wheat futures only gained 0.1% last week while December 2026 Chicago maize futures fell by 0.4%.

The different trend likely, in part, reflects a rise in the strength of the US dollar and better weather for US maize crops.

Also last week, StoneX predicted a US maize yield 1% higher than the US Department of Agriculture's July forecast.

However, US maize crop condition ratings have dipped in the past three weeks after periods of hotter weather.

As a result, a poll by Reuters shows a wide range of expectations for the US maize yield, with the average expectation 0.3% below the USDA’s July forecast.

Irish harvest

And, finally, Ireland’s grain harvest is back in full swing again after recent rains had brought a halt to field work in many parts of the country.

Spring barley remains the main crop to be harvested following disappointing yields for both winter wheat and winter barley.

Winter oilseed rape has been the most resilient crop harvested in Ireland up to this point with growers benefiting from a combination of acceptable yields and strong market prices.