UK November 2026 wheat futures returned above the key £200/t threshold in the latest round of trading.

The contract for the week ending August 14 ended with prices at £203/t: up 1/8% from a week earlier.

According to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), the November 26 contract’s highest price to date of £207.00/t, reached on July 22, could prove to be the next key level.

Prices could face some "resistance" around this mark, depending on the market news this week, AHDB said.

Russian/Ukraine exports

Meanwhile, global grain prices are being supported by worries about exports from Russia and Ukraine.

Rising crude oil prices and concerns about US crops also featured.

There is growing focus on the reduction of exports from both Russia and Ukraine, in months when the countries typically ship large volumes.

Industry sources estimate that Russian grain exports fell 20% year-on-year in July, with steeper year-on-year reductions expected for August.

This follows earlier strikes and the suspension of operations at Russia’s top wheat exporting port in the Black Sea, Novorossiysk.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian port at Izmail has also suffered damage.

Ukraine’s agricultural ministry reported grain exports down 10% year-on-year in the first 14 days of August, though some industry sources showed steeper falls.

Wheat futures

Meanwhile, December-26 Paris wheat futures have gained 1.9% over recent days while December-26 Chicago wheat futures gained 4.8% during the same period.

Prices in the US were also supported by concerns about low soil moisture levels in southern winter wheat growing states.

Planting of the 2027 crop is fast approaching, usually starting in early September.

Maize

Meanwhile, December-26 Chicago maize have gained 4.6% for the week ending August 14.

This trend has been supported by signs of tighter supplies compared to demand in the US.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its forecast of the 2026 US maize yield by 0.14 t/ha from last month, to 11.35 t/ha.

This was a bigger cut to yields than the market was expecting

A larger cropped area more than offset lower yields to take US maize production to 406.7Mt, up 0.3Mt from July.

However, the USDA still cut stocks more sharply than the market was expecting, which supported prices.

Meanwhile, harvesting of spring barley, wheat and oats has begun in Canada.

Markets will be looking to see if periods of contrasting weather and higher disease levels have impacted crop yields or quality.