Tillage farmers with a “heavy reliance” on spring crops may find it hard to “pay their bills over the coming months”, according to the Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA) Grain Committee chair.
Teagasc has predicted that there will be a 13% fall in Ireland’s cereal output for 2023 and according to Kieran McEvoy, this will not come as a major surprise to many.
“A fall-off in production levels from 2022 was always on the cards. Last autumn’s very poor conditions led to a significant reduction in the area dedicated to winter crops.
“This was followed by an equally challenging spring planting season. There are a significant number of very poor spring barley crops around the country at the present time,” McEvoy said.
Tillage farmers
He also warned that this is likely to cause financial issues for many farmers.
The IFA chair added: “Many tillage farmers with a heavy reliance on spring crops will find it very hard to pay their bills over the coming months.
“The first priority is to get the 2023 harvest saved. We can then sit down and take stock of the situation.
“If it is felt that a government support package is required, the request will be made on behalf of all affected growers.”
Meanwhile, Irish Grain Growers’ Group (IGGG) chair Bobby Miller also told Agriland that it is “no surprise at all that overall grain output is predicted to fall by 13%”.
“We had a very poor back end last year, the spring planting season that followed was equally poor and tillage farmers had to cope with extremely strong input costs at the same time,” he said.
Miller also attributed the fall-off in the area of crops grown in 2022/23 to the fact that tillage farmers could not compete with milk producers when it came to leasing land.
He added: “The tillage sector is under pressure from all directions at the present time.”
The harvest estimate published by Teagasc predicts total cereal production in Ireland will be 2.1 million tonnes in 2023. This represents a decrease of 300,000t (-13%) when compared to 2022.
Estimated crop yields by Teagasc advisors indicate that crop yields for harvest 2023 will be close to the five-year averages.
The one exception to this is spring barley, where advisors expect that yields in 2023 will be significantly below the five-year average.
Teagasc also estimates that 45% of this year’s spring barley was sown late, from mid-April onwards due to wet weather, and yield expectations in these crops are low, with some crops struggling to reach a potential 5t/ha.
Negative profit margin
Using costs from the Teagasc Costs and Returns 2023 and current prices, these crops will have a negative profit margin.
Teagasc head of crops knowledge transfer, Michael Hennessy said: “We have seen a big increase in costs this year and coupled with lower grain prices, and a return to average yields, margins will be very tight on tillage farms this year – especially for growers with spring barley.
“Lower than average yielding crops, and crops on rented land, are likely to leave a negative margin in 2023.”
Figures released by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) highlight that the overall cereal area decreased by 6% when compared with 2022.
However, when protein crops and oilseed rape are factored in, the tillage area in Ireland reduced by 2%. If beet and maize areas are included, this reduces the change to a 1% reduction in area when compared to 2022.
Teagasc crops specialist, Ciaran Collins said: “While it is disappointing to see a drop in the cereal area, it is encouraging to see an increase in beans and oilseed rape, which will help increase the resilience of the tillage sector.”
But Michael Hennessy has also added a note of caution about the estimates.
“The current very wet weather is hampering the harvesting of winter barley, with losses increasing in fields through dropped heads and crop lodging.
“In order for famers to harvest the yields predicted here, dry weather is essential over the coming weeks,” he warned.