The outlook for the European poultry industry is “moderately positive” as chicken remains an affordable choice for consumers according to Rabobank’s latest global poultry quarterly report.
Feed prices are also expected to drop slightly and with shoppers opting for chicken as beef and prices remain at higher levels poultry demand is expected to grow.
The bank has also highlighted that in 2023 the European poultry industry had to contend with “oversupply” due to production expansion and what it described as strong imports from Ukraine.
This was reflected in a drop in European chicken prices in quarter four 2023 but this has come to a halt in the first quarter of 2024 according to Rabobank.
It has forecast that the biggest concern for the poultry industry in Europe will be supply balance as fragile market circumstances persist.
“Poultry demand is expected to grow 1% to 1.5% in 2024 but any overly ambitious growth via production or imports could significantly impact margins,” Rabobank highlighted.
It has also warned that there is still “pressure” in the market due to “historically high” imports from Ukraine which accounted for around 240,000 metric tons in 2023.
Meanwhile the impact of avian influenza (bird flu) in 2023 was significantly less on European poultry markets compared to previous years.
According to Rabobank between October 2023 and February 2024 there have been 173 cases of bird flu reported in Europe – a total of 5.2 million birds have been culled over that timeframe.
The majority of cases were in central and eastern Europe.
However bird flu, according to the latest global poultry quarterly report remains an “ongoing concern” across the world.
Rabobank
According to Rabobank global poultry market conditions are gradually recovering but it expects that “geopolitical tension” will impact on trade flows in 2024.
Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst – animal protein with Rabobank said: “Price will still drive market demand, but less so than in 2023, due to lower consumer price inflation and higher incomes.”
He believes this will support some recovery in demand for value-added poultry, like “processed chicken and poultry concepts, and improved demand in foodservice”.
But according to, Rabobank “price consciousness” among consumers will remain a key driver.