Is some of this talk about cuts to future Irish CAP (farm) funding beyond 2021 being blown out of proportion?

A brief look at the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement – signed off between London and Brussels last year – might cast a different perspective on things and might, perhaps, provide some hope.

At the very heart of this new arrangement is the Irish Protocol, which appears to guarantee unfettered trade north-to-south (and vice versa) on the island of Ireland. Of course, the question is: Will this measure stay in place, irrespective of whatever future trade arrangements are agreed between the UK and the EU-27?

So let’s see: What issues could arise that would de-harmonise agri-trade arrangements on this island? The most obvious one that springs to mind is a distortion in support measures between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Those of us with long enough memories will recollect the discussions that took place to get the Fischler CAP reform proposals over the line almost 20 years ago.

Back then, the whole focus was on how best to align EU support measures without distorting trade between Europe and the rest of the world. The end result of those deliberations was the introduction of a decoupled support system, which we still have today.

For those who do not follow developments in Northern Ireland that closely, let me confirm the following. Recent days have seen the Westminster government commit to retain its farm funding at 2019 levels for the next five years (i.e. maintaining subsidy payments at levels similar to that under CAP).

This, of course, includes Northern Ireland, where new (agriculture) minister Edwin Poots has already confirmed the farm support budget for 2020.

Modicum of good news?

Is there a modicum of good news for farmers south of the border in this? Is there an onus on Brussels to act to ensure that there is a pro-rata level of farm support through Dublin (as there will be through Belfast) to prevent any possibilities of trade distortion across the island of Ireland.

Could one also argue that Brussels – not Dublin – is mandated to make up for any relative shortfalls in farm support levels that could arise in the Republic of Ireland over the coming years?

Don’t forget; the available (net) UK funding envelope for agriculture has been boosted by the fact that London no longer has to pay into the EU crisis reserve. This is another string to Dublin’s bow, when it comes to seeking north-south farm support parity.

It should also be noted that Edwin Poots is of a mind to introduce coupled payments for suckler cows and breeding sheep. Indeed, he has made no secret of his intention to maintain a strong agricultural production base in Northern Ireland.

Could any of this provide solace for those of a similar mindset south of the border?