A discussion on the 2023 performance achieved by the world’s main grain growing regions was the focus of a recent Tillage Edge podcast.
It featured the perspectives of Phelim Dolan, a grain trader with Comex-McKinnon.
Despite the extreme fluctuations in all farming inputs over the last two years, the actual prices received for grain remain the determinant of tillage profitability.
The majority of Irish tillage farmers remain price-takers at harvest. And this is unlikely to change over the next 12 months.
However, a few Irish farmers study the markets and sell throughout the year.
Grain in other countries
According to Dolan, war and geo-politics continue to drive international grain markets.
“But we are now two years into the Black Sea conflict. So it’s no longer front and centre to the extent that it was,” he explained.
“In effect, the market has adapted around this issue.”
Dolan pointed out that the logistics relating to the transport of grain from the Black Sea region have adapted as well.
“Both Ukraine and Russia secured quite large harvests in 2023. And, for the most part, grain is finding a way out from that part of the world,” he continued.
“A lot of cereal grains and maize has been shipped out of Ukraine through Poland.
“In addition, Ukraine can still use a selection of ports on the Black Sea plus the River Danube. Ports on Romania’s Black Sea are another exit point for produce form Ukraine.”
Where the United States is concerned, Dolan confirmed that growers in that part of the world enjoyed a good harvest.
“It looks like corn output will come in at record levels for 2023, despite the fact that the weather was not ideal in some parts of the US throughout the growing season,” he said.
“In addition, US wheat yields are adequate. And soya beans are reasonably good as well.”
Meanwhile, Brazil has become a tremendous driving force, where global grain output is concerned.
“Every year Brazil seems to have bigger and bigger production. But one would wonder at what cost, where deforestation is concerned,” Dolan added.
“However, Brazil continues to keep coming out with larger crops, year-on-year.
“Brazil has now overtaken the US in terms of corn and soya exports. This is in total contrast to the situation that prevailed 20 years ago.
“However, growers in the US continue to adapt new seed technologies while crop management practises continue to improve in equal measure.”