Future wheat prices (November 2026) have fallen below the £180/t threshold, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB).

Global grain markets have delivered mixed signals over recent days. However, the general sentiment was market pressure.

Driving this was favourable weather in the US, lower crude oil prices, higher global wheat inventories forecast and northern hemisphere harvest pressure.

Meanwhile, the June 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, produced by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), was broadly neutral to slightly bearish for grains.

Wheat was the main supportive element, with USDA trimming US production and ending stocks.

However, this was offset by global wheat inventories increasing, larger South American maize crop estimates and a higher global maize carryout, which kept overall sentiment under pressure.

In Europe, improved crop prospects weighed on the market, as late spring rainfall eased earlier drought concerns and boosted confidence in the region’s wheat harvest.

Crop conditions in France, Germany and Poland have recovered after recent heat and dry spells, while additional rain in Eastern Europe has also supported yield potential.

Market factors

Looking forward, the weather in the US Midwest is going to be a price driver in the coming weeks.

Now most of the US maize crop is planted, the market will be sensitive to any hot and dry spells until the end of July.

AHDB is also indicating that geopolitical events may also impact on international grain and oilseed prices.

Significantly, the US and Iran have agreed to end hostilities in the Persian Gulf. President Trump has reported that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, with a memorandum of understanding now signed, covering a period of sixty days.

According to AHDB, an end to this conflict would be bearish for grains in the short-term because it eases energy and freight costs, reduces fertiliser-cost pressure, and removes some geopolitical risk premium from the market.

It could also soften wheat and maize prices indirectly if crude oil falls and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalises, though the impact would depend on how quickly trade flows and energy markets settle.

Winter barley

Meanwhile, the winter barley harvest has commenced in France: it is difficult to judge yields and quality just yet.

Extreme heat is forecast for next week across France, which could lead to swift harvest progress.

Reports are indicating that the French maize area is expected to be down 18.8% for 2026; a drop of 15% was expected by the market.