Production growth within all the major agricultural sectors across the EU is expected to slow in the coming years, according to the EU Commission’s agricultural outlook for 2023 to 2032.
Both the dairy and beef herds within the EU are expected to decline and the total arable land within the EU is also forecast to shrink to 57.2 million hectares by the end of this timeframe.
However, the current level of record food inflation is not expected to persist and the outlook estimates that the EU will remain self-sufficient in almost all products, producing enough of a surplus to contribute to global supply chains.
Milk and dairy production
Extensive production systems are set to become more favourable over the next ten years to address environmental concerns, leading to a decline in the EU dairy herd and ultimately a decrease in EU milk production of 0.2% per year.
Despite this, the outlook stated that “this will not jeopardise the EU’s position as the largest global dairy supplier”, as dairy-consumption patterns are likely to remain stable.
Meat production outlook
Once again, sustainability factors will have an impact on meat production and consumption within the EU over the next decade.
The EU herd is set to decrease by 2.8 million head and consumption of meat within the bloc is expected to decline by -1.5kg per capita each year, with beef particularly affected by this trend.
The outlook also stated that an annual decline in pork consumption of 1% will likely be substituted by poultry, which is the only sector within the meat industry expected to expand in terms of both production and consumption.
Arable crops outlook
The outlook for the cereal sector is similar, with the total EU area projected to decrease marginally to 57.2 million hectares by 2032, as a result of decreased barley and maize production.
Despite this forecast however, consumption of cereals in the region is set to increase by about 3.9%. The use of cereals for feed purposes will decline though meaning that the overall EU domestic use will remain stable.
Significant growth is anticipated in another area of the tillage sector, with EU production of oilseeds projected to be 33 million tonnes in 2032m an increase of 2.8 million tonnes on the current trend.
As the EU will by then be producing 54.7% more pulses and 33.3% more soyabeans, net imports of oilseeds and other protein crops into the EU will decline.
The Commission’s outlook report was presented at the EU Agricultural Outlook conference which began yesterday (Thursday, December 8) and is continuing today (Friday, December 9).
The projections presented at the conference are based on the 28 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Strategic Plans from EU countries, free-trade agreements and the market data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) agricultural outlook.