The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has forecast that agricultural emissions could fall by almost 20% by 2030, if a range of measures are put in place including specific methane reduction steps.
But the EPA has also warned that the majority of sectors – agriculture, electricity, transport and industry sectors – will not meet their climate targets by 2030.
In its latest report on Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Projections, the EPA stated that the agricultural sector “contributed 38% of Ireland’s total emissions in 2021 and is projected to rise to 43% by 2030”.
Existing measures
The agency also outlined that total emissions from the agriculture sector are projected “to decrease by almost 4% over the period 2021 to 2030″ in line with existing measures such as the Nitrates Action Programme (NAP).
This specifies that all slurries on nitrates derogation farms are required to be spread with Low Emission Slurry Spreading technologies (LESS).
According to the latest EPA report “current evidence shows that the use of LESS has penetrated to non-derogation farms. Therefore, the target of 90% of slurries spread by LESS by 2027 as per AgClimatise is applied”.
Other existing measures which must be reached to ensure a 4% reduction in emissions by 2030 include if the targeted lime application of 2MT per annum by 2030 is reached and if the use of inhibited urea fertiliser remains at current levels.
Additional measures
However, according to the EPA if new, additional measures are introduced including switching to different fertilisers, limits on nitrogen (N) fertiliser usage and bovine feed additives, then this could deliver an almost 20% reduction in total emissions from agriculture between 2021-2030.
According to the EPA, to achieve the higher reduction in emissions most of the measures outlined in the Climate Action Plan 2023 and other initiatives such as those set out in the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine’s AgClimatise roadmap and the Teagasc Greenhouse Gas Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (GHG MACC) must be implemented.
These measures would include:
- Replacing 65% of Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) and nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) fertiliser products with inhibited urea fertiliser by 2030;
- Target fertiliser sales at 350 kt N by 2025 and 325 kt N by 2030;
- Methane reduction measures;
- Slurry additives to reduce methane emissions;
- Reduced slaughter age for cattle;
- Reduced age to first calving;
- Feed additives (cattle);
- Dairy economic breeding index (EBI).
In its latest report the EPA again highlights that the key agriculture sector emissions come from enteric fermentation – methane emissions arising from the digestive process in livestock – manure management and nitrogen and urea application to soils.
It stated in the report that its calculations are based on an updated analysis undertaken by Teagasc of the projected animal populations, crop areas and fertiliser use.
Stronger growth
But the EPA has also modeled potential emissions from agriculture – based on the current existing measures – if there is stronger growth in the agricultural sector.
In this instance it examined the outcome if there was continued strong growth in the dairy herd and said under this scenario, dairy cow numbers in 2030 are projected to reach 1.756 million which would represent a 12% increase relative to 2022.
According to the EPA if the dairy share of the total cattle population were to increase, the higher stocking rate would lead to a higher level of nitrogen use per hectare.
“In 2030 the total use of nitrogen is projected to be 419,546t. This represents a 22% increase relative to the observed levels of use in 2022,” the EPA stated.
Overall the agency has warned that Ireland is projected to fall well short of its climate targets.
Its latest analysis outlines that planned climate policies and measures, if fully implemented, could deliver up to 29% emissions reduction by 2030.
“This is insufficient to achieve the ambition of 51% emissions reduction in Ireland’s Climate Act,” the EPA stated.
Laura Burke, director general, EPA said: “Ireland will miss its 2030 climate targets unless all sectors of the economy deliver emission reductions in the short-term and sustain this delivery into the future.
“We’re in the third year of the first Carbon Budget period, with only seven more years left to 2030.
“A continued lack of delivery of large-scale practical actions to decarbonise activities in all sectors will see us exceed our carbon budgets.”